行业比较跟踪：通胀交易已经发生局部过热的征兆

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that inflation trading has shown signs of localized overheating, with significant fluctuations in upstream resource prices, particularly in non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, which have continued to rise [10] - As of May 25, copper prices on COMEX reached 478.35 cents/pound and 2582.50 USD/ton, marking increases of 4.5% and 1.88% respectively since the beginning of the month [10] - Domestic futures prices for copper and aluminum reported at 83760 CNY/ton and 20815 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 3.36% and 0.45% respectively [10] - The report suggests that the current rise in commodity prices is primarily driven by expectations of liquidity expansion, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to weak inventory replenishment behavior among enterprises [10] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 62.65% as of May 19, indicating a potential opportunity in emerging industries with cyclical attributes [10] Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the cement price index increased by 1.76 points over the past week, while rebar and glass futures prices rose by 129 CNY/ton and 57 CNY/ton, representing week-on-week increases of 9.2% and 1.6% respectively [10][16] - Despite the increase in building materials prices, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities nationwide decreased by 36.96% year-on-year, indicating that the market remains at a low point [10] - The report emphasizes the need to assess domestic liquidity constraints and their potential impact on the global liquidity expansion cycle, as well as the implications of sudden changes in regional political issues [10]