国内观察：2024年4月工业企业利润数据：工业企业利润增速转正的背后
Donghai Securities·2024-05-28 00:30

Group 1: Profit Growth Insights - In April 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, maintaining the previous value of 4.3%[1] - The month-on-month profit growth returned to positive at 4.0%, with a two-year average growth rate showing a smaller decline compared to the previous month[2] - The profit margin slightly improved due to a decrease in expense ratio by 0.33 percentage points, despite a slight increase in cost ratio by 0.26 percentage points[2] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Dynamics - Revenue growth improved from -1.2% in March to 3.3% in April, driven by both volume and price increases, with industrial added value rising by 6.7% year-on-year[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but improved by 0.3 percentage points compared to March[2] - The cost ratio has reached a high level, which may impact future profit growth[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The profit share of midstream raw material manufacturing has increased significantly, while upstream mining and downstream manufacturing have seen declines[3] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing profits have shown a notable recovery, with all 13 consumer goods manufacturing sectors reporting positive growth[3] - The recovery in profits for non-ferrous metal processing and other midstream sectors is attributed to strong demand and improved product value[3] Group 4: Inventory Trends - As of the end of April, finished goods inventory increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.5% previously, indicating a slight replenishment trend[4] - Actual inventory also rose by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting a structural replenishment focus amid insufficient domestic demand[4] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and demand recovery, which could pressure profit margins in downstream industries[5] - The base effect in May may disrupt profit growth rates due to higher comparative figures from the previous year[5]