东兴证券东兴晨报

Group 1 - The report highlights that companies that enhance their services tend to have more stable profits and better resilience against profit fluctuations during price wars, indicating a shift from a low-price focus to a dual emphasis on price and service in the industry [3][19] - The rapid growth of low-priced e-commerce parcels has created a critical decision window for companies, leading to significant differentiation in strategies among major players, with some opting for aggressive pricing while others focus on maintaining profitability [6][7] - The report notes that the intensity of the current price war is high, with companies like Yunda and Shentong seeing their per-package revenue drop to around 2 yuan, similar to levels during the most intense price wars in 2020-2021 [8][27] Group 2 - The report indicates that the first quarter saw a significant increase in package volume, driven by the growth of new e-commerce platforms, although this also led to a decline in per-package revenue [7][19] - It is suggested that the price war's intensity may ease in the second half of the year due to capacity constraints and the need to support franchisees, which could lead to a more stable revenue environment for companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong [27][19] - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders Zhongtong and Yuantong, as they have shown more stable revenue streams compared to competitors heavily engaged in price wars [27][19]