XIAOMI(01810) 国盛证券·2024-05-28 01:31Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23 [2][3] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's 2024Q1 revenue reached RMB 75.5 billion, a YoY increase of 27%, with adjusted net profit exceeding expectations at RMB 6.5 billion, up 101% YoY [1] - The core business adjusted net profit (excluding EV and other innovation expenses) was RMB 9 billion, better than expected [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone market share increased to 14% in 2024Q1, with shipments of 40.6 million units, up 34% YoY [1] - The company raised its 2024 SU7 delivery target from 100,000 to 120,000 units, with expected car gross margins of 5-10%, exceeding market expectations [2] Business Segments Smartphones - Smartphone revenue in 2024Q1 was RMB 46.5 billion, up 33% YoY, with a gross margin of 14.8%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The ASP (Average Selling Price) for smartphones in 2024Q1 was RMB 1,144.7, a slight decrease of 0.6% YoY, but both domestic and international ASPs increased [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to continue growing, with market share and ASP likely to rise further in 2024 [1] AIoT and Internet Services - AIoT platform connected devices reached 786 million in 2024Q1, up 27% YoY, with 15.2 million users having five or more connected devices, a 24.2% YoY increase [1] - AIoT gross margin hit a record high of 19.9%, up 4.1 percentage points YoY, driven by higher-margin products like tablets and wearables [1] - Internet services revenue in 2024Q1 was RMB 8 billion, up 14.5% YoY, with overseas internet revenue reaching RMB 2.5 billion, accounting for 31.2% of total internet revenue [1] - Internet services gross margin was 74.2%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY, supported by higher-margin advertising revenue [1] Xiaomi Automotive - Xiaomi's automotive division plans to expand its intelligent driving team to 1,500 by the end of 2024 and 2,000 by 2025 [2] - The company aims to launch city NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) in 10 cities by May 2024 and nationwide by August 2024 [2] - Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem strategy is expected to enhance user experience and increase profitability through IoT products and value-added services [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 337.3 billion, RMB 389.1 billion, and RMB 434.2 billion, with YoY growth rates of 24%, 15%, and 12% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP core business net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 27 billion, RMB 29.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion, with YoY growth rates of 1%, 9%, and 8% respectively [2] - The company's 2024E P/E ratio for core business is 15x, with a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [2] Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock price as of May 24, 2024, was HKD 18.30, with a total market capitalization of HKD 456.68 billion [3] - The company's 30-day average trading volume was 129.63 million shares [3]