银行资负跟踪：财政缴款起量，关注跨月资金面

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net liquidity tightening in the interbank market, with a focus on upcoming government bond payments and their impact on liquidity [2][15] - Government bond net payments are expected to rise significantly, indicating an increase in fiscal efforts, which may improve economic expectations in the long term [2][15] - The overall funding rates remain stable, with slight fluctuations influenced by tax periods, but are expected to rise due to high government bond payments and month-end factors [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Payments and Liquidity - Recent fiscal payments have increased, with government bond net payments at CNY 2,229 billion this period and projected to rise to CNY 5,556 billion next period [2][15] - The central bank conducted CNY 100 billion in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.80%, resulting in a net withdrawal of CNY 20 billion [2][15] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank's reverse repo balance is at a low of CNY 100 billion, indicating a loose liquidity environment [2][15] - Funding rates for DR001, DR007, DR014, and DR021 have increased by 6.06bp, 1.59bp, 8.90bp, and 0.30bp respectively [2][15] - Shibor rates for 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y have shown slight declines, with 1Y increasing by 0.4bp [2][15] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) has seen a weighted average issuance rate of 2.05%, up by 3bp from the previous period [2][16] - The total issuance of NCDs exceeded CNY 1 trillion, with a net financing scale of over CNY 400 billion [2][16] - The total outstanding NCDs reached CNY 16.78 trillion, with an average remaining maturity of 156 days [2][17] 4. Government Bond Rates - The yields for government bonds have varied, with 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y rates showing slight increases and a decrease for the 30Y rate [2][16] - The anticipated increase in government bond net financing is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" and support a rise in long-term bond yields [2][16] 5. Commercial Bank Bonds - There were 8 issuances of commercial bank bonds totaling CNY 610 billion, with a total outstanding bond scale of CNY 2.99 trillion [2][18] - The credit spreads for short-term bonds have narrowed, while long-term spreads have generally widened [2][18]