有色行业周报：美联储官员发言压制降息预期，铜金价格短期回调

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals index experienced a weekly decline of 3.7% as of May 24, 2024, ranking 18th among 31 primary industries, with a year-to-date increase of 10.48% [2][14]. - The copper prices have shown a significant decline due to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, with LME copper and SHFE copper closing at $10,334 per ton and ¥84,050 per ton, reflecting changes of -3.56% and -0.24% respectively [3][21]. - Aluminum prices are expected to improve due to favorable real estate policies, which are anticipated to boost demand [3]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have decreased by 0.5% and 1.83% respectively, reaching ¥106,440 and ¥96,310 per ton [29]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with electrolytic cobalt rising by 8.68% to ¥238,000 per ton, while other cobalt compounds also saw slight increases [29]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that liquidity conditions remain favorable for the long term, with expectations of a weaker dollar benefiting commodity prices. Supply disruptions, such as a year-on-year decline in Chilean copper production and reduced electrolytic aluminum output due to power supply issues, are noted. The report anticipates improved demand following the implementation of extensive real estate policies and a potential ¥1 trillion bond issuance [5][13]. Weekly Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw all sub-sectors decline, with the top three declines being non-metal materials III, copper, and other minor metals, with respective declines of -8.1%, -4.91%, and -4.79% [16][19]. Price and Inventory Performance - As of May 24, 2024, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices changed by -3.56%, +1.41%, +0.11%, +0.51%, -3.21%, and -3.74% respectively. SHFE copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices changed by -0.24%, -0.67%, -1.1%, +3.54%, -1.4%, and -0.44% respectively [21][22]. - The report highlights that LME copper inventory increased by 8.71% and SHFE copper inventory increased by 3.42% [24]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices decreased by 2.02% and 3.91% respectively, with gold closing at $2,366.9 per ounce and silver at $30.37 per ounce. The gold-silver ratio increased to 77.94, indicating a slight shift in market dynamics [4][31]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices showed mixed results, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreasing by 4.75% and dysprosium oxide decreasing by 1.46%, while other minor metals like magnesium ingots and antimony saw increases [35][36].