气温上升明显，煤价持续走强

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, China Shenhua, and others [1][3]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a strong upward trend in prices due to rising temperatures and stable demand, particularly in the context of summer electricity needs [1][2]. - The report highlights a positive sentiment in the coal supply chain, with expectations of limited supply growth due to safety regulations and production constraints [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Ratings - Shanxi Coking Coal: "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.2 CNY for 2024E and a PE of 9.29 [1]. - China Shenhua: "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 3.18 CNY for 2024E and a PE of 12.99 [1]. - Other companies such as Huabei Mining and Shaanxi Coal also received "Outperform" ratings with strong EPS and PE forecasts [1]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 2.19%, compared to a decline in major indices [3][4]. - Key stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Electric Power Investment showed significant gains, indicating strong investor interest [3][4]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices have risen, with notable increases in various regions, such as a 3.3% increase in Qinhuangdao's 5500 kcal thermal coal price [2][4]. - The report notes that the price of coking coal has also seen upward movement, driven by improved demand and rising costs [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a tightening supply in the coal market, particularly in regions like Yulin, where production is beginning to contract [1][2]. - Demand remains stable, with expectations for robust electricity consumption during the summer months, further supporting coal prices [1][2]. Inventory and Transportation - As of May 24, coal inventories at key power plants increased to 10,757 million tons, indicating a healthy supply situation [3][4]. - Port coal inventories also rose, with a total of 26,007,000 tons reported, reflecting ongoing logistical challenges and demand [3][4]. Weather Impact - The report highlights the declining water levels at the Three Gorges Reservoir, which could impact hydropower generation and increase reliance on coal [3][4].