乳制品行业深度：筑基已成，潜力犹存

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment outlook for the dairy industry as "Positive (First Time)" [2] Core Insights - The dairy industry in China has established a solid foundation for development over the past seventy years, transitioning from scarcity to a mature market with ongoing growth potential [7][20] - The market size of China's dairy industry reached 573.86 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, indicating a trend of slowing growth in recent years [22] - There remains significant room for growth in per capita dairy consumption, which is currently only 12.4 kg, compared to global averages [22][26] Summary by Sections 1. Current State of the Dairy Market - The dairy market in China has undergone continuous self-reform and has established a solid foundation for healthy development, with a market size of 573.86 billion yuan in 2023 [2][22] - The industry has seen a significant increase in milk production, with 4,197 million tons produced in 2023, reflecting a growth of over 180 times since the founding of the People's Republic of China [7][22] 2. Growth Opportunities in the Dairy Market - There are still opportunities for growth in the overall dairy market, driven by sustainable economic growth, narrowing urban-rural income gaps, and the maturation of milk consumption habits [2] - Specific segments such as low-temperature fresh milk and functional yogurt are expected to see significant growth due to advancements in cold chain logistics and increasing health awareness [2] 3. Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a dual oligopoly with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu holding over 40% of the market share, indicating a stable competitive environment [32] - The concentration of the liquid milk market is high, with over 55% of the market share held by domestic leaders, while the dry dairy product market is more fragmented with both domestic and foreign brands competing [36] 4. Profitability Outlook for Dairy Enterprises - The profitability ceiling for Chinese dairy companies is expected to rise, as they leverage their advantageous positions in the supply chain to reduce costs and seek profits through product upgrades [2] - The average milk yield per cow has increased to 9.2 tons, and the use of total mixed rations (TMR) technology has reached 95%, enhancing production efficiency [22][17] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese dairy industry, recommending attention to national leaders like Yili and regional players like Bright Dairy and New Hope Dairy [2]