LI AUTO(02015) 第一上海证券·2024-05-28 05:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.37 or HKD 130.67, indicating a potential upside of 64.31% in USD and 60.72% in HKD from the current price [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was below expectations, with revenue of RMB 25.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.6%. The vehicle delivery volume was 80,400 units, up 52.9% year-on-year but down 39% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 20.6%, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in vehicle gross margin [1]. - The company launched the L6 model, which is expected to stabilize sales, with over 41,000 orders received by May 5. The sales guidance for Q2 is between 105,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.6% to 36.8% [1]. - The release of the pure electric SUV has been postponed to the first half of 2025, while the company plans to accelerate the construction of fast-charging stations, aiming to build over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve sales of 504,000 units, 705,000 units, and 856,000 units from 2024 to 2026, with revenues of RMB 148.3 billion, RMB 202.8 billion, and RMB 244.3 billion respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 8.72 billion, RMB 13.7 billion, and RMB 18.8 billion for the same period [1][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 20% for both 2024 and 2025, with net profit margins of 6% and 7% respectively [7]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 143.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 208.4 billion by 2026, while total liabilities are expected to increase from RMB 82.9 billion to RMB 100.3 billion in the same period [6][7].