高盛：医疗CRO、CDMO反映美国《生物安全法》修订草案中条款的更新情景分析

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, reflecting a positive outlook on their potential despite legislative uncertainties [51]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of the revised US BIOSECURE Act on the revenue exposure of WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, particularly focusing on the grandfather clause that extends the partnership termination deadline to January 2032 [2][37]. - It highlights the potential revenue growth for WuXi AppTec at 13% and for WuXi Biologics at 15%, driven by industry growth, with a long-term growth rate of 3% factored into terminal value calculations [2][8]. - The analysis includes two scenarios regarding the impact of the BIOSECURE Act, estimating that 65% of orders for WuXi AppTec and 47% for WuXi Biologics could be affected under the first scenario, while the second scenario suggests that 82% of orders would be impacted [2][5]. Summary by Sections Legislative Impact - The report discusses the legislative process of the BIOSECURE Act, noting that the final form remains uncertain and could affect the operational capabilities of WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [2][37]. - It mentions that the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the bill could lead to delays in securing new orders from US clients, impacting sales from FY25/26 onward [37]. Financial Projections - The report revises sales estimates for WuXi AppTec for 2024-2026 down by -0.5%, -4.2%, and -6%, and net profit estimates by -1.7%, -4.8%, and -5.9% respectively [37][38]. - For WuXi Biologics, the revised sales estimates are -2.1%, -4.5%, and -6.7%, with net profit estimates adjusted by -6.6%, -9.2%, and -10.9% [38]. Valuation Methodology - The implied share prices under different scenarios are calculated, with WuXi AppTec's share price estimated at HK$46.9 under the base case and HK$21.5 under a more restricted scenario [5][37]. - WuXi Biologics' share price is projected at HK$17.5 under the revised estimates, reflecting a 12-month forward P/E of 19x [38][41]. Market Context - The report notes that over 124 US biopharma companies currently depend on China-based manufacturing, indicating a significant reliance on WuXi's services [2]. - It also highlights the potential for a shift towards a "China + 1" model for manufacturing among global pharma clients, which could affect future order volumes [2].