有色金属行业周报：美国降息预期或再延后，关注工业金属需求回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The U.S. economic growth remains resilient, while inflation data is weak, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may suppress metal prices in the short term. However, domestic real estate policy adjustments are expected to support downstream demand and stabilize metal prices [1][13]. - Long-term outlook suggests that prices for major metal varieties may trend upward, maintaining the "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From May 20 to May 24, 2024, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index fell by 3.61%. Among the sub-industries, industrial metals decreased by 3.75%, precious metals by 2.57%, and energy metals by 4.12% [5]. 2. Precious Metals - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. indicates economic resilience, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 50.9, the highest in two months. The service PMI reached 54.8, a 12-month high, and the composite PMI was at 54.4, a 25-month high. Initial jobless claims were at 215,000, the lowest in nearly a month [13]. - The delayed expectations for interest rate cuts may pressure metal prices in the short term [13]. 3. Industrial Metals - Continuous optimization of real estate policies and financial support for real estate financing are expected to boost downstream demand for industrial metals. Major companies are signing agreements for significant loans to support real estate financing [18]. - Copper and aluminum are likely to benefit from the recovery in real estate demand, with copper prices remaining high due to tight upstream supply [18]. - As of April 2024, China's electrolytic copper monthly production was 959,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [19]. 4. Key Listed Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced the establishment of a venture capital fund, which has completed registration with the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association [12]. - Xiyang Co. is set to issue a second phase of technology innovation bonds, with a total issuance scale not exceeding 1 billion RMB [12].