有色金属行业点评：“反向开票”对铅价影响几何？

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent "reverse invoicing" policy is expected to enhance the profitability of resource recovery enterprises by allowing them to deduct VAT, potentially saving about 1% of costs [6][7] - Short-term disruptions in the flow of waste batteries are anticipated due to the initial implementation of the policy, but a gradual easing of supply constraints is expected in the medium to long term [7][19] - The core contradiction in lead prices lies in whether the supply tightness of waste batteries can be alleviated; while short-term prices may rise due to reduced supply, long-term price stability is expected as costs are passed down the supply chain [3][19] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The "reverse invoicing" policy allows qualified resource recovery enterprises to issue invoices to individual sellers of waste products, which is expected to reduce tax burdens and enhance operational efficiency [6][8] - The policy includes tax exemptions for individual sellers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan and a reduced VAT rate of 1% for small-scale taxpayers [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of waste batteries has tightened, leading to increased prices, with waste battery prices reaching 10,300 yuan per ton [11][19] - Primary lead production has decreased by 7.4% in April 2024, while recycled lead production has dropped by 7.8% due to supply constraints [11][14] Price Outlook - Short-term price corrections are expected, but medium to long-term price levels may rise as costs are transferred to downstream recycled lead smelters [19]