美股宏观策略周报

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent release of ChatGPT 4o and Google's IO conference indicates a vibrant market, but caution is advised due to potential bubbles similar to the historical railroad industry in the U.S. [3] - There are reports of price reductions and inventory adjustments in the Chinese market, reflecting a necessary adaptation to changing conditions [4]. Group 2: Economic Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly exceeded expectations, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4% [5]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 3.6%, aligning with expectations, and the recent inflation data has prompted a positive market reaction, leading to significant declines in interest rates and a rise in stock prices [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Global stock markets performed well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 40,000 points for the first time, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new highs [5]. - Notable forecasts suggest that by 2030, the Dow Jones could reach 60,000 points and the S&P 500 could hit 8,000 points, indicating a potential 50% increase and approximately 7% annual compound growth rate [5]. - A shift in sentiment is observed as a prominent bear strategist has turned bullish, predicting a 2% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year [5]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Apple’s COO visited TSMC, speculated to secure the first batch of 2nm production capacity, potentially contributing NT$600 billion (approximately US$20 billion) in revenue [16]. - TSMC's cautious approach to capital expenditure is highlighted by its reluctance to invest in expensive new lithography machines from ASML, contrasting with Intel's aggressive spending [16]. - Microsoft is expected to launch several AI devices and software, likely utilizing Qualcomm's ARM architecture, which may benefit chip suppliers like Qualcomm, ARM, and NVIDIA [17].