2023年仓储物流公募REITs市场概况与展望

Industry Overview - The warehousing and logistics industry has seen steady demand growth, with the total social logistics volume increasing from 177.3 trillion yuan in 2012 to 352.4 trillion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.44% [7] - The industry's prosperity index has generally remained above the boom-bust line, except for a slight dip below 49.5 in 2022 due to the pandemic [7] - Fixed asset investment in the warehousing sector has fluctuated but showed positive growth since 2020, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 25.1%, and 27.5% from 2021 to 2023 [8] - The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim regions account for two-thirds of the national total of Class A logistics warehouse area, with secondary logistics centers emerging in cities like Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan [9] REITs Performance - In 2023, 1 new warehousing logistics REIT was issued (Jia Shi JD REIT), and 2 existing REITs (CICC GLP REIT and Red Soil Innovation Yantian Port REIT) underwent expansion [10] - The 3 existing REITs achieved an annual net cash flow distribution rate of over 4.5%, demonstrating investment value, but face risks of declining property valuations due to rental rate and price fluctuations [1] - CICC GLP REIT's quarterly revenue exceeded 100 million yuan after expansion in June 2023, with a distribution amount of over 80 million yuan per quarter, but rental prices have declined significantly [1] - Red Soil Innovation Yantian Port REIT and Jia Shi JD REIT maintained stable operations in 2023, but both face concentration risks due to high tenant concentration from related parties of the original rights holders [1] Market Trends - The average vacancy rate for general warehouses in 41 key cities was 15.20% in December 2023, with an average rental rate of 24.27 yuan/m²/month, worsening by 3.17 percentage points and 4.95% year-on-year [9] - There is a phenomenon of price reductions to promote leasing due to relative oversupply in the market [9] - The total transaction volume of the 3 warehousing logistics REITs reached 8.616 billion shares by March 2024, with a total transaction value of 32.232 billion yuan, with CICC GLP REIT accounting for the largest share at 54.08% and 63.91% respectively [44] - Jia Shi JD REIT showed the highest market activity with a daily turnover rate of 1.69%, while CICC GLP REIT had the largest price fluctuation with an interval amplitude of 121.67% [44][48] Future Outlook - With economic stabilization and recovery, demand for warehousing logistics real estate is expected to remain stable, maintaining high net cash flow distribution rates for REITs [1] - Policy support may lead to more high-quality warehousing logistics infrastructure being listed through REITs [1] - The rise of new consumption patterns and increased cross-border e-commerce penetration are expected to stabilize demand for warehousing logistics real estate, potentially curbing the upward trend in vacancy rates [50] - The warehousing logistics infrastructure market supply is expected to continue rising in 2024, with ample asset reserves laying the foundation for industry recovery, but may lead to temporary oversupply and continued pressure on rental prices [50]