行业研究报告 2025 年私募股权投资行业信用回顾与 2026 年展望 金融机构部 高飞 摘要：近年来，国内股权投资市场进入调整阶段，募资金额逐年下降，存续 规模由增转减。2025 年前三季度在二级市场活跃度持续提升的背景下，股权投 资市场投资案例数及金额较去年同期有所增长，退出市场活跃度亦有所回升。 近年来政府投资基金公司表现持续活跃。随着《国务院办公厅关于促进政府 投资基金高质量发展的指导意见》以及《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向 指导的工作办法（试行）》和《政府投资基金投向评价管理办法（试行）》的先 后落地，政府投资基金公司将逐步转变为追求政策效益最大化，新设立的创业及 私募股权投资基金将更契合区域产业发展。因资产端表现较为固化，通常政府投 资基金公司的负债结构以长期债务为主。由于付息偿付较为刚性，年度间投退节 奏较为均衡，账面现金有规律的来源于投资完成清算后收益的公司，往往会拥有 更稳定的盈利表现。 展望 2026 年，募资和退出环节逐步回暖带动私募股权投资市场活跃回升。 政策引导进一步明确，政府投资基金将逐步优化整合，新设基金将围绕政策导向 进行投资。 行业研究报告 一、私募股权投资行业信用回顾 ...

新世纪评级 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 钢铁行业 （弱）稳定 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 吴晓丽 包璇 摘要 2025 年以来，钢铁行业竞争格局总体稳定，大规模产能置换已近尾声， 优质钢企主要通过兼并重组和购买产能指标扩大规模，炼钢产能总体平 稳，轧钢产能则随着先进产线投产有所扩充。在行业限产、非建筑用钢需 求回暖、铁矿石和焦煤价格下行缓解成本压力基础上，期内行业效益有所 改善。但是，行业深层供需矛盾仍未解决，下游有效需求依然不足，钢材 供给量仍过大，供给过剩问题依然突出。 2025 年，钢铁行业政策重点仍集中于绿色低碳和产能置换方面，其中 3 月发布的《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方 案》，标志着钢铁行业正式纳入全国碳交易市场，行业低碳转型进入强制 性约束阶段；10 月发布的《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》 公开征求意见，在减量置换力度、重点区域产能限制、限期非同一企业产 能置换等提出更加严格要求，未来将对钢铁行业供给端产生一定影响。 样本钢企多为行业内大型企业，产能合计占到全国总产能的半数，市场地 位显著；部分 ...

行业研究报告 2025 年消费金融行业信用回顾与 2026 年展望 金融机构部 熊荣萍 李萍 摘要：2025 年前三季度，我国经济运行平稳，一系列提振消费政策持 续落地显效，推动消费市场稳步改善，对经济增长的贡献度同比有所回升。 然而，由于居民收入预期偏弱以及房地产价格调整引致的家庭资产缩水等 因素，居民消费信贷增速呈现持续回落态势。政策方面，2025 年以来，国 家出台了多项政策引导消费金融更好地发挥提振消费的作用。同时金融监 管总局发布的助贷新规明确要求消费金融公司对合作的平台运营机构及 增信服务机构实行名单制管理，并将增信成本等纳入综合融资成本且设定 上限，进一步强化机构自主风控能力，上述要求有助于推动消费金融公司 规范经营，并促进其产品综合定价有序下行。 2024 年，我国银行卡数量及银行卡应偿信贷余额保持增长，信用卡逾 期半年未偿信贷占比亦同比上升。2024 年，消费金融公司整体资产增速有 所回落，个别公司资产规模有所下降，消费金融公司盈利显著分化。从 12 家样本消费金融公司 2024 年业绩表现来看，样本消费金融公司不良及关 注类贷款合计占比多保持稳定，但考虑核销后的资产质量均有所下行，反 映出 ...

Economic Performance - Heilongjiang Province's GDP reached 1.65 trillion yuan in 2024, ranking 25th among all provinces in China, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the national average[2] - The province's primary industry added value was 320.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.9%, while the secondary industry saw a decline of 0.2% to 414.7 billion yuan, and the tertiary industry grew by 4.7% to 912.6 billion yuan[2][22] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Heilongjiang's GDP was 1.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, still below the national growth rate of 5.2%[2] Fiscal Strength - Heilongjiang's general public budget revenue was 145.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.0% increase, ranking 25th among provinces, with a tax ratio of 60.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year[5][35] - The province's budget self-sufficiency rate was only 22.5% in 2024, indicating a high reliance on upper-level subsidies, which accounted for 45.6% of total fiscal revenue[5][33] - In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue was 77.3 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase, with a self-sufficiency rate improving to 27.7%[5][44] Debt Situation - By the end of 2024, Heilongjiang's government debt reached 962.8 billion yuan, an increase of 113.0 billion yuan from the previous year, ranking 24th nationally[8] - The ratio of local government debt to general public budget revenue was 6.63 times, placing it 7th highest in the country, indicating a heavy debt burden relative to fiscal capacity[8] - As of September 2025, the total government debt had risen to 1.063 trillion yuan, maintaining its 24th position among provinces[8] Regional Economic Disparities - Harbin and Daqing are the leading cities, with GDPs of 601.6 billion yuan and 281.6 billion yuan respectively, together accounting for 53.6% of the province's total GDP[3][49] - In 2024, 10 cities experienced economic growth while 3 cities (Qitaihe, Hegang, and Jixi) faced declines, with Qitaihe's GDP dropping by 7.2%[3][50] - The economic structure is increasingly dominated by the tertiary sector, with 8 cities having over 50% of their GDP from services in 2024[3][53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - REITs are investment funds that pool capital through issuing shares or beneficiary certificates, with funds managed by specialized institutions and returns distributed to investors. Originating in the US in the 1960s, they have since expanded globally, providing ordinary investors access to the real - estate market [4]. - China's REITs market, initiated in 2014 with the first quasi - REITs product, has developed a multi - level market including Pre - REITs, quasi - REITs, infrastructure public REITs, and hold - type real - estate ABS, offering diverse investment options and meeting the needs of both financiers and investors [2]. - These REITs products share commonalities in tax planning, capital weakening structures, and financial statement optimization, but also have significant differences in product positioning, categories, rating roles, investor types, and underlying asset types [49][57]. - Looking ahead, China's multi - level REITs market will continue to develop, with infrastructure public REITs expanding through the expansion mechanism, quasi - REITs maintaining their characteristics, and hold - type real - estate ABS filling market gaps [65]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - REITs are investment funds that pool capital from investors, managed by specialized entities, and distribute returns proportionally. They originated in the US in the 1960s and have grown globally after the 1986 tax reform [4]. 2. China's Multi - level REITs Market (1) Pre - REITs Products - Pre - REITs target infrastructure/real - estate assets that are not yet eligible for public or quasi - REITs but have potential for future development. They use private investment vehicles and aim to exit through public REITs or quasi - REITs [5]. - The development of Pre - REITs is driven by the strict entry requirements of public and quasi - REITs. For example, public REITs have requirements on asset ownership, cash - flow stability, and operator creditworthiness [6]. - The Huaxi Zhangjiang Guangdayuan project is a successful case where Pre - REITs achieved exit through public REITs. During the incubation period, the project adjusted tenant structure and increased revenue to meet public REITs requirements [8][9]. (2) Quasi - REITs Products - As of September 2025, 309 quasi - REITs worth 608.977 billion yuan were issued in China. They are important in the ABS market, with a common dual - SPV structure and can be classified into equity - biased and debt - biased types [14]. - The dual - SPV structure involves an asset - backed special plan and a private fund/trust. For projects with existing debt, the private fund acquires project company equity and repays the debt; for projects without debt, an additional SPV is introduced [15][19]. - Equity - biased and debt - biased quasi - REITs differ in product term, repayment method, LTV, location, and credit enhancement measures [21][24]. (3) Hold - type Real - estate ABS - Hold - type real - estate ABS fills the gap between quasi - REITs and infrastructure public REITs, targeting projects that do not meet public REITs criteria but can operate independently of the issuer's credit. As of September 2025, 14 such products worth 2.1381 billion yuan were listed [25][26]. - It emphasizes asset credit and equity attributes, with a simple transaction structure, long - term nature, and an open - exit mechanism. It also allows higher leverage and does not require mandatory credit rating [28][29]. (4) Infrastructure Public REITs - Since the launch of the first 9 infrastructure public REITs in 2021, as of September 2025, 75 public REITs have been listed in various infrastructure sectors [34]. - They adopt a "public fund + asset - backed security" dual - SPV structure, which inherits and develops from quasi - REITs. The public fund can invest 80% of its assets in infrastructure asset - backed securities and can borrow for project operations [35][36]. - The equity + debt structure can be constructed in multiple ways, including project company capital reduction, accounting policy adjustment, and deferred payment of equity transfer fees [37]. 3. Commonalities of Various REITs Products (1) Tax Planning - REITs product construction may incur additional tax costs, mainly during the real - estate restructuring phase. The state has issued policies to address major taxes such as land value - added tax, VAT, and corporate income tax [49][50]. (2) Capital Weakening Structure - REITs products use an equity + debt structure to achieve capital weakening and take advantage of tax shields. However, there are regulatory limits on the debt - to - equity ratio [54]. (3) Financial Statement Optimization - All REITs products have the potential to optimize financial statements. Quasi - REITs can use off - balance - sheet and on - balance - sheet arrangements, while hold - type real - estate ABS and infrastructure public REITs can reduce leverage through asset sales [56]. 4. Differences among Various REITs Products (1) Product Positioning - Pre - REITs are non - standard products, acting as a "reservoir" for public REITs. Quasi - REITs are standardized fixed - income products, and hold - type real - estate ABS can avoid the high entry barriers of public REITs [58]. (2) Product Categories - Quasi - REITs are divided into equity - biased and debt - biased types. Hold - type real - estate ABS can be evaluated based on cash - flow stability, and infrastructure public REITs are divided into property - right and franchise - right types [59]. (3) Rating Roles - Pre - REITs and infrastructure public REITs do not require rating agencies. Quasi - REITs need credit ratings, while hold - type real - estate ABS can have investment ratings at investors' request [60]. (4) Investor Types - Pre - REITs are suitable for institutional investors with industrial backgrounds. Quasi - REITs are for investors seeking fixed income. Hold - type real - estate ABS attracts long - term institutional investors, and infrastructure public REITs have a diverse investor base [61]. (5) Underlying Asset Types - Pre - REITs' underlying assets are similar to those of infrastructure public REITs but are less mature. Quasi - REITs have a wide range of underlying assets, while hold - type real - estate ABS and infrastructure public REITs have more specific requirements [62]. 5. Summary and Outlook - China has established a closed - loop REITs business model, covering fixed - income and equity products, which meets the needs of market participants and is a financial innovation within the existing legal framework [64]. - In the future, infrastructure public REITs will grow through expansion, quasi - REITs will maintain their position, and hold - type real - estate ABS will fill market gaps [65].

Economic Performance - Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 98,565.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the third-largest economy in China[2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the GDP reached 77,115.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The province's industrial investment helped mitigate the negative impact of declining real estate investment, contributing to overall investment growth[2] Fiscal Strength - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue was 7,711.74 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the previous year, ranking fifth nationally[4] - The tax ratio was 65.35%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous year, placing it 13th among provinces[4] - Government fund budget revenue fell to 4,832.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% due to declining land transaction prices[4] Debt Situation - By the end of 2024, Shandong's government debt reached 28,428.81 billion yuan, an 18.9% increase from 2023, ranking second nationally[7] - The debt-to-budget revenue ratio was 4.46 times, indicating a moderate level of risk compared to other provinces[7] - The debt growth was concentrated in larger cities, with Qingdao and Jinan having the highest debt levels at 4,382.57 billion yuan and 3,770.56 billion yuan, respectively[8] City-Level Analysis - Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai led the provincial economy with GDPs of 16,719.46 billion yuan, 13,527.60 billion yuan, and 10,782.83 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 41.6% of the province's total GDP[3] - Most cities experienced a slowdown in economic growth, with the average growth rate around 5% to 7%[3] - In 2024, the general public budget revenue for Qingdao and Jinan was 1,339.26 billion yuan and 1,083.05 billion yuan, respectively, showing a clear leading advantage[5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Amid the deepening of local government debt risk prevention and the acceleration of financing platform reform and transformation, with the implementation of the debt - resolution package, there have been phased achievements in implicit debt resolution and financing platform exits. However, bond issuance review maintains a strict supervision of new urban investment financing. In 2025, local governments actively integrated state - owned resources, and the number of entities achieving new - use bond issuance increased, but regional transformation progress varies significantly [2]. - The current debt - resolution policies have two - sided impacts: on one hand, they boost urban investment credit, compress issuance costs and credit spreads, and relieve short - term liquidity pressure; on the other hand, they tighten financing channels and force urban investment entities to accelerate market - oriented transformation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of Urban Investment Bond Issuance under Strict Supervision - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2023 proposed a "package debt - resolution plan", local debt risk resolution has entered a new stage. With a series of supporting policies centered on "controlling new growth, resolving existing debt, and promoting transformation", bond issuance review strictly restricts new urban investment financing while also providing an exit mechanism for list - based management, and the debt - resolution concept is shifting from "risk prevention" to "both risk prevention and development promotion" [3]. - In terms of net financing performance, since 2024, under the influence of strict financing supervision and the maturity peak, the net financing scale of urban investment bonds has dropped significantly, with more than 10 provinces having negative net financing. In the first three quarters of 2025, the total issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year, with only 14 provinces having a small net inflow [5]. - Regarding the use of funds raised by urban investment bonds in the first three quarters of 2025, over 80% was used for debt roll - over, about 13% for repaying interest - bearing debts, and less than 1% each for project construction and working capital supplementation. Other uses accounted for about 3% [6]. - From 2024 to the first three quarters of 2025, there were 520 entities achieving new - use bond issuance (excluding duplicates), mainly high - level and high - quality entities. The new - raised funds were mainly used to repay interest - bearing debts, and the proportion of other new - use bonds in terms of the number and amount of issuance was about 30% and 22% respectively [9]. - In terms of regional distribution, Tibet and Qinghai have no new - use urban investment bond issuance. Entities achieving new - bond issuance are mainly from economically strong provinces with rich transformation resources. Guangdong has the most new - break - through entities since 2025. Jiangsu and Zhejiang follow, with relatively active new bond issuances by district - county - level entities [12]. 2. Sample Analysis of Newly - Issued Bond Financing Entities - From 2024 to September 2025, there were about 376 urban investment and transformation - type entities making their debut in the bond market. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong had the most newly - issued entities, accounting for 58% of the total. AA+ and above entities accounted for about 80%, and district - county - level entities accounted for about 50% [18]. - Among the newly - issued entities, 273 achieved new uses of bond - raised funds. Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang were in the top four, accounting for 55% of the total. The proportion of entities achieving new uses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was relatively low, possibly due to the integration of bond - issuing entities [19]. - Non - top economically developed provinces' newly - issued and new - use entities are concentrated in provincial capitals, while in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, entities are more widespread and have a more obvious downward trend to the district - county level. Jiangsu and Zhejiang often use internal resource integration of bond - issuing entities, while Guangdong mainly uses government - led integration of regional operating assets [22]. - Newly - issued and new - use entities mainly issue on exchanges, with 85% of exchange - issued entities only issuing private placement bonds. Many entities use guarantee and credit enhancement, and an increasing number explore special - labeled bond varieties [24]. - Over 40% of newly - issued and new - use entities have total assets of less than 10 billion yuan, and 65% have total assets of less than 15 billion yuan. Half of the entities have an asset - liability ratio of no more than 50%, and about 30% have a ratio below 40%. Their main business is relatively focused, but most are in the business expansion and cultivation stage, and about 10% had negative net profits in 2024 [27]. - For district - county - level newly - issued and new - use entities, about half belong to districts and counties with a general public budget revenue of over 8 billion yuan, and 11 belong to those with less than 2 billion yuan but relatively light debt burdens. For prefecture - level entities, 65% belong to prefectures with a general public budget revenue of over 20 billion yuan, and about 20% are from prefectures with over 100 billion yuan [30]. 3. Insights from Cases of Newly - Issued Urban Investment and Transformation - Type Entities - The transformation process varies greatly among regions. Successful entities show provincial concentration characteristics. Local governments and enterprises should choose appropriate transformation plans according to regional urbanization, resource endowments, and their own conditions [33]. - Transformation direction: Entities should clarify their functional positioning and choose transformation directions around serving urban industrial development, improving urban functions, and meeting social and people's livelihood needs. The current transformation directions mainly include urban comprehensive operation and industrial investment and operation entities [35]. - Integration methods: Different regions should choose integration forms based on their resource status and their own conditions, such as government - led integration of regional industrial resources, internal resource integration of bond - issuing urban investment entities, merger integration, and acquisition/merger of external resources [37]. - Asset and business reconstruction: Entities should meet the "335 indicators", have clear main businesses matching their functional positioning, and possess market - oriented operation and self - financing capabilities [38]. - Clarify the boundary with the government: Entities need to clarify the boundaries with the government in terms of debt, property rights, rights and responsibilities, and business, and continuously improve the market - oriented operation mechanism [42].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the financing leasing industry in the first quarter of 2025 Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, the total bond issuance by financing leasing companies reached 1766.14 billion, representing a decrease of 5.99% compared to the same period last year and a decline of 6.77% from the fourth quarter of 2024 [2][3] - The issuance of non-structured products accounted for 52.39% of the total, while structured products made up 47.61% [2] - AAA-rated bonds dominated the non-structured products, comprising 88.33% of the total issuance [9] - The average issuance rates and spreads for leasing companies' bonds showed a downward trend compared to the previous year, with notable differences across various maturities and ratings [16][18] Summary by Sections Bond Issuance Situation - In Q1 2025, 95 leasing companies issued bonds, with 61 companies disclosing their credit ratings [6] - AAA-rated companies accounted for 59.02% of the total, while AA+ and AA-rated companies made up 32.79% and 8.20%, respectively [6][13] - The largest issuance category was ABS, totaling 735.44 billion, which constituted 41.64% of the total issuance [3] Specialty Bond Issuance Trends - The report highlights various specialty bonds, including green bonds, sustainable development-linked bonds, rural revitalization bonds, and technology innovation bonds [10] - In Q1 2025, green bonds had an issuance of 245.16 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.60% [10] - Conversely, rural revitalization bonds and technology innovation bonds saw significant declines in issuance, with decreases of 52.79% and 50.00%, respectively [10] Analysis of Issued Bond Rates and Spreads - The average issuance rates for non-structured products showed a decline compared to the previous year, with spreads widening slightly overall [16] - The most significant differences in issuance rates and spreads were observed in 3-year AA+ rated bonds, followed by 9-month and 2-year AA+ rated bonds [16][18] - AAA-rated financial leasing companies had lower issuance rates and spreads compared to most AAA-rated commercial leasing companies [18][21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment rating for AAA-rated securities companies, with a significant issuance scale of CNY 2,652.20 billion in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 96.59% of the total issuance [2][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds was prominent in the first quarter of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 36.82% for short-term financing bonds and 5.25% for corporate bonds, while subordinated bonds saw a decline of 30.94% [2][5]. - The report highlights that higher-rated securities companies have better access to public bond issuance channels and narrower spreads, with AAA-rated companies issuing a total of CNY 2,652.20 billion [3][4]. - No changes in credit ratings for securities companies were reported in the first quarter of 2025, indicating stability in the sector [8]. Summary by Sections Bond Issuance and Credit Rating Distribution - In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 49 securities companies issued bonds, with 40 being AAA-rated, 8 AA+-rated, and 1 AA-rated [7]. - The issuance scale for AAA-rated companies increased by CNY 159.30 million year-on-year, while AA+-rated companies saw an increase of CNY 30.50 million [4][7]. Analysis of Major Bond Types and Spreads - A total of 85 corporate bonds, 24 subordinated bonds, and 53 short-term financing bonds were issued in the first quarter of 2025 [9]. - The average spread for AAA-rated corporate bonds decreased across various maturities, while the spread for AA+-rated bonds increased for 3-year maturities [13][14]. - The average spread for short-term financing bonds issued by AAA-rated companies was 53.51 basis points, showing a significant decrease compared to the previous year [16].

市场表现研究 商业银行 2025 年一季度市场表现分析 金融机构部 王春苗 李玉鼎 摘要：2025年一季度，商业银行债券发行规模合计4708.60亿元，同比减少6.07%。 其中，15家银行发行一般金融债券2970亿元，4家银行发行二级资本债993.60亿 元，5家银行发行永续债745亿元。绿色金融债、小微金融债以及三农专项金融债 等特色品种发行规模合计1750亿元。一季度，同业存单净融资额1.77万亿元，到 期收益率先升后降。同期，商业银行不涉及主体级别调整。截至2025年3月末， 存续发债商业银行主体级别主要分布于A+及以上，其中AAA和AA+级商业银行 占比分别为28.86%和24.57%。 一、 金融债券发行情况 2025年一季度，商业银行债券发行数量为30支，发行规模合计4708.60亿元， 较2024年四季度环比下降19.36%，较上年同期同比下降6.07%。商业银行债券总 偿还量有所上升，一季度净融资额29.30亿元，较上年同期同比下降96.82%。截至 2025年3月末，商业银行存续债券数量1240支，债券余额10.40万亿元。 数据来源：wind，新世纪评级整理 1 / 8 -80.00 - ...