Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [8] Core Views - The company reported a 1% revenue increase in Q1 2024, with same-store sales recovering to approximately 90% of 2019 levels [8][10] - The company plans to open approximately 1,500 to 1,700 new stores in 2024 and aims for capital expenditures of around $700 million to $850 million [10] - The company is increasing its stock buyback and dividend payouts, returning about $1.5 billion to shareholders [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.96 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase (7% increase when excluding foreign exchange effects) [2] - Adjusted operating profit was $374 million, down 11% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was $287 million, down 2% year-over-year [2] - The operating margin was 12.6%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] Store Expansion and Performance - As of Q1 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 15,022, with a net increase of 378 restaurants, marking a record for the first quarter [8] - The profit margin for restaurants was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [8] Cost Structure - In Q1 2024, raw materials and consumables increased by 7.3% to $900 million, accounting for 32.1% of revenue [8] - Employee costs rose by 3.7% to $710 million, making up 25.4% of revenue [8] - Management expenses decreased by 8.5% to $140 million, representing 4.7% of revenue [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are $11.589 billion, $12.388 billion, and $13.225 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.6%, 6.9%, and 6.8% respectively [9][10] - Net profit projections for the same period are $873 million, $935 million, and $1.017 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.6%, 7.0%, and 8.8% [10] Valuation - The estimated fair value per share is between $44.9 and $56.1, corresponding to a price range of HKD 350.5 to HKD 438.2 based on a PE ratio of 20-25 for 2024 [10][15]
百胜中国：公司季报点评：1Q24收入增1%，同店恢复度环比提升