2023年5月宏观利率展望：供给加速叠加政策出台，利率震荡延续

Economic Overview - Despite the narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread, it remains wide, with foreign institutions increasing their holdings of Chinese bonds by $10.2 billion in April, a decrease from earlier in the year[1] - The RMB depreciated to around 7.2 against the USD, limiting the space for further domestic monetary policy easing due to exchange rate and capital account pressures[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth for January-April was 4.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a decline in investment across all three major sectors[12] - Real estate investment growth for January-April was -9.8%, with new construction, completion, and sales all showing negative growth, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[14] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has continued to implement policies to support the real estate sector, with a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the financial system[93] - As of mid-May, the central bank had conducted 11 reverse repo operations, injecting a total of $22 billion, while also maintaining a net withdrawal of $438 billion in the first half of May[93] Inflation and Price Trends - April's CPI increased to 0.3% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, while PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.5%[87] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential upward trend in inflation[90] Trade and Export Performance - In the first four months, exports grew by 1.5% year-on-year, with April's export growth rebounding by 9 percentage points compared to March, driven by automotive and high-tech product exports[70] - The trade surplus for April was $72.35 billion, continuing to support the currency despite ongoing pressures from the interest rate differential with the US[75]