北方华创：Key beneficiary of semiconductor localization

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Naura Technology (002371 CH) with an unchanged target price (TP) of RMB405, indicating a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of RMB304.98 [4][5]. Core Insights - Naura Technology is positioned as a key beneficiary of the semiconductor localization trend in China, driven by significant capital expenditure (capex) expansion from downstream clients and the launch of the "Big Fund III" with a total of US$47.5 billion [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve robust revenue growth, with new orders signed in 2023 amounting to RMB30 billion, of which over 70% are for semiconductor equipment [2][3]. - Revenue growth projections include a 40% increase in 2024, supported by order wins in critical product areas such as CCP, CVD, and cleansers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB22,079 million in FY23A to RMB30,856 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.7% [3][12]. - Gross margin is expected to decline slightly to 39.8% in FY24E but is projected to recover to 42.3% by FY26E [3][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB5,527.3 million in FY24E, representing a growth of 41.8% [3][10]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises gross profit margin forecasts upward by 1.9 percentage points for FY24E and 3.9 percentage points for FY25E, due to a larger revenue contribution from advanced equipment [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB10.41 in FY24E to RMB19.74 in FY26E, indicating strong profitability growth [10][12]. Market Context - The geopolitical landscape has prompted major economies to invest heavily in domestic chip fabrication capabilities, which is expected to benefit companies like Naura Technology [2][3]. - The "Big Fund III" aims to enhance self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on advanced materials and AI-related areas, further supporting Naura's growth trajectory [2][8].