建筑行业周报:专项债/国债下达节奏后置、后续资金面有望宽松,继续推荐绩优建筑央企
GF SECURITIES·2024-05-29 02:31

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the issuance of special bonds and government bonds is delayed, but the funding situation is expected to improve, continuing to recommend high-performing central enterprises in the construction sector [2][5]. - The overall funding for infrastructure is tight, with a significant decrease in the issuance of special bonds in 2024, which is expected to accelerate in the future [11][19]. - The report highlights the performance of key companies in the construction sector, noting their dividend yields and profit margins [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Bonds and Government Bonds - The issuance of special bonds in 2024 is expected to be lower initially, with a total issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan planned, and only 937.5 billion yuan issued by May 26, 2024, which is a 50.6% decrease year-on-year [11][13]. - Infrastructure spending from the general public budget reached 1.9 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2024, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 20.4% of total expenditures [9][10]. 2. Domestic Loans - In the first quarter of 2024, new medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure decreased by 0.19 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 1.97 trillion yuan added [17][18]. - The total balance of medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure reached 37.57 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [17]. 3. City Investment Bonds - The total issuance of city investment bonds in 2024 reached 24.215 trillion yuan by May 26, 2024, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year [19][20]. - The report notes significant growth in bond issuance in regions like Heilongjiang and Liaoning, with increases of 350.0% and 317.9% respectively [22]. 4. Special National Bonds - A total of 1 trillion yuan in special national bonds is set to be issued in 2024 to support major national strategies and security construction, with a multi-frequency issuance schedule planned [23][24]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several key companies based on their performance metrics, including China State Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, highlighting their respective dividend yields and profit margins [25]. - The low-altitude economy sector is also noted for its growth potential, with companies like Huase Group and Design Institute receiving attention for their contributions to infrastructure projects [25].