供给加速叠加政策出台，利率震荡延续

Economic Overview - Demand remains weak, with real estate investment and consumption growth below market expectations, while high-tech production shows significant recovery[5] - In April, CPI rose to 0.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in price levels, although inflation remains low[20] - Fixed asset investment growth for January-April was 4.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, with real estate investment declining by 9.8%[58] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Since May, the central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, with the average interbank repo rate (DR007) fluctuating within a 10 basis points range above the policy rate[27] - The central bank conducted 11 operations of 7-day reverse repos, injecting a total of 220 billion yuan, while net liquidity withdrawal reached 438 billion yuan in early May[27] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to accelerate, alleviating previous allocation pressures in the bond market[10] Interest Rate Strategy - Bond yields have rebounded from low levels, primarily due to increased government bond issuance and supportive policies following the Politburo meeting[10] - The anticipated continuation of a loose monetary policy suggests limited upward pressure on interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts in the second quarter[10] - The average rates for interbank certificates of deposit and Shibor have decreased, with 1-month Shibor at 1.94%, down 7 basis points from April[50] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in April showed a slight recovery but fell again in May, with daily average transaction area growth declining from -38.9% in April to -49.06% in May[91] - The average land transaction premium rate in May was 1.67%, down from April, indicating continued caution among developers[92] - New construction starts showed a significant rebound in April, but overall real estate investment growth remains negative, reflecting ongoing market challenges[72] Trade and Export - In the first four months, exports grew by 1.5%, with April's growth exceeding market expectations, driven by high-tech product exports[67] - The trade surplus in April was $72.35 billion, indicating a strengthening of trade dynamics despite ongoing pressures from high U.S. Treasury yields and capital outflow risks[84]