2024年半年度大类资产配置：经济微暖，份有限公

Economic Overview - Inflation remains sticky, providing a basis for loose monetary policy[2] - Current economic state shows natural recovery with slight improvement in net exports[12] - Domestic economy is recovering but requires time, with service sector recovery being sustainable[8] Monetary Policy - Global trend is shifting towards interest rate cuts, potentially starting by the end of Q2[4] - The necessity for rate cuts within the year is decreasing, with the U.S. not likely to return to long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022[41] Capital Markets - U.S. stock market shows low short-term recession risk, with no significant risk points identified[21] - A-shares are at a bottom range, with the Shanghai Composite Index's 5-year PB moving average still below 0.9[44] - Recommendations include increasing allocation to U.S. short-term bonds with maturities under 2 years[25] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sector shows slight improvement compared to 2023, but significant recovery is challenging[8] - Investment is slightly declining due to export and real estate investment drag[142] Consumer and Retail - Consumer spending is expected to support the economy, although growth may be slightly below 2023 levels[58] - Retail sales growth is not keeping pace with service consumption[147]