BioKangtai(SZ:300601) Haitong Securities·2024-05-29 13:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth in 2023, with a total revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 860 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, and the operating cash flow net amount was 1.03 billion yuan, up 89% year-on-year [6][8] - However, a decline in revenue and profit is expected in the first quarter of 2024, with a projected revenue of 450 million yuan, down 40% year-on-year, and a net profit of 54.07 million yuan, down 74% year-on-year [6] - The company’s new human diploid rabies vaccine is anticipated to drive new growth, having received approval in December 2023 [6] - The company is making steady progress in international markets, with its 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine obtaining a marketing license in Indonesia [6] - A new round of stock options and restricted stock incentive plans has been announced, with specific performance targets set for the next three years [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.48 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.73 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.8% [8][11] - The net profit is expected to increase from 860 million yuan in 2023 to 1.55 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [8][11] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 84.5% in 2023 to 88.5% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [11][12] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, with a reasonable value range of 19.59 to 24.49 yuan per share, translating to a market capitalization of 21.9 billion to 27.4 billion yuan [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.77 yuan in 2023 to 1.39 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong profit growth [11][12]