农林牧渔行业研究周报：猪价周环比快速上涨，4月能繁母猪存栏持续去化

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The price of commodity pigs has rapidly increased week-on-week, reaching a new high for the year, with an average price of 16.56 CNY/kg as of May 24, reflecting a 7.81% increase [2][13]. - The number of breeding sows continues to decline, with a reported stock of 39.86 million as of the end of April, down 0.15% month-on-month and 6.96% year-on-year, indicating a trend of capacity reduction that is expected to support pig prices in the coming months [3][23]. - The market anticipates a recovery in pig prices due to low stock levels and improving supply-demand dynamics, which may stimulate secondary fattening and pressure on large-scale farms to hold back supply [18][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends - Commodity pig prices have surged, with the average price reaching 16.56 CNY/kg, marking a significant increase compared to previous peaks around the Spring Festival and Qingming Festival [2][13]. - The average price of 7kg piglets is 563.33 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week increase of 4.41% and a month-on-month increase of 0.77% [2][13]. - The price of cull sows has also risen, with an average of 11.85 CNY/kg, reflecting an 8.62% increase week-on-week and an 11.90% increase month-on-month [2][13]. 2. Weight and Price Discrepancies - The average weight of commodity pigs has decreased slightly, with an average of 122.72 kg as of May 24, down 0.06% week-on-week [3][18]. - A price inversion has occurred where the price of standard pigs exceeds that of fat pigs, with a price difference of 0.08 CNY/kg [3][18]. 3. Industry Data Overview - As of April 30, the national stock of breeding sows was reported at 39.86 million heads, indicating a continued decline in breeding capacity [23][34]. - The average price of white feather broilers is reported at 7.75 CNY/kg as of May 24 [34]. - The average price of corn is 2436.27 CNY/ton, and soybean meal is 3555.14 CNY/ton as of May 24 [34][51]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with sound capital structures and strong growth potential in the pig farming sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [4][25]. - In the poultry sector, attention is drawn to companies with proprietary breeding sources such as Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [4][25]. 5. Market Performance - The agricultural and forestry sector index increased by 0.57% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.65 percentage points [26][30]. - The livestock sector saw a notable increase of 2.68%, while other segments like animal health and planting experienced declines [27][30].