Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-30 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba with an expected price relative return of over 20% within the next 6 months [5][6]. Core Insights - Alibaba's international business and Cainiao Group's revenue exceeded expectations, and the company continues its share repurchase program [6]. - For FY24Q4, Alibaba reported revenue of 221.87 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [6]. - The operating profit was 14.765 billion yuan, down 3% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITA was 23.969 billion yuan, down 5% year-over-year, primarily due to increased investments in e-commerce and employee retention incentives for Cainiao [6]. - Net profit was 919 million yuan, down 96% year-over-year, mainly due to losses from market value changes in listed company equity investments held by Alibaba Group [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit was 24.418 billion yuan, down 11% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders at 3.270 billion yuan [6]. Business Segment Summaries China Commerce - Revenue for China Commerce was 93.216 billion yuan, below Bloomberg consensus estimates, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 38.501 billion yuan, in line with expectations [6]. - The number of high-end consumers (88VIP members) grew by over 35 million year-over-year, indicating strong demand for competitively priced products [6]. - The overall monetization rate slightly declined, with Taobao's GMV growth outpacing Tmall's, reflecting increased demand for competitively priced products [6]. Cloud Business - Cloud business revenue was 25.595 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 3%, slightly below expectations [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the cloud segment reached 1.432 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 45% [6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing public cloud adoption and has reduced prices for over 100 public cloud products to improve global market competitiveness [6]. International Business - International commerce revenue was 27.448 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 45%, exceeding expectations [6]. - The overall order volume grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in cross-border business, particularly from AliExpress [6]. - The report highlights the synergy between AliExpress and Cainiao's cross-border logistics, enhancing competitiveness [6]. Cainiao Group - Cainiao's revenue was 24.557 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 30%, surpassing expectations [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of 1.342 billion yuan, primarily due to increased revenue from cross-border logistics services supporting AliExpress [6]. - The company plans to expand its service coverage to four additional countries, bringing the total to 14 countries [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts Alibaba's revenue forecasts for FY 2025-2027 to 1,019.6 billion, 1,110.0 billion, and 1,212.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% respectively [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY 2025-2027 are set at 155.8 billion, 160.4 billion, and 163.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2% and growth of 3% and 2% respectively [6].