4月份工业企业利润数据解读：经济温差或侵蚀盈利，补库开启仍需观察

Economic Performance - Industrial profits from January to April 2024 reached 2094.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with April showing a 4.0% increase, up 7.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The profit growth in April was driven by expanded production scale, with industrial added value increasing by 2.2 percentage points to 6.7%, and a narrowing of the factory price decline by 0.3 percentage points to -2.5%[20] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises rose to 85.3 yuan in April, the highest since 2018, reflecting increased production cost pressures[23] Export and Industry Trends - Export-oriented industries showed greater profit improvements, with high-value-added industries benefiting from policy support, while some high-energy-consuming industries struggled or continued to incur losses[3] - In April, the profit growth rate of midstream equipment manufacturing increased by 16.9 percentage points to 20.7%, with sectors like transportation equipment, automobiles, and electronic equipment showing significant growth[30] - The profit growth rate of the manufacturing sector in April rose by 12.2 percentage points to 8.2%, with upstream raw material processing industries seeing a 40.1 percentage point increase in profit growth[47] Inventory and Demand - The inventory of finished products in April increased by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, but the inventory cycle remains in a bottoming phase[31] - The inventory cycle is expected to potentially start in the third quarter, as current inventory accumulation remains weak and the inventory growth rate is influenced by last year's high base effect[52] Risks and Challenges - The widening gap between domestic and international economic conditions may increase production costs, particularly for raw materials, thereby eroding overall profit improvements[9] - The structural reform and expansion of domestic demand are crucial for sustained profit improvements, especially in the context of global supply chain disruptions[10]