Industry Overview - The shipping industry is a crucial subset of the transportation sector, broadly divided into ship operation and ship leasing [2] - Over 80% of global trade goods are transported via shipping, making the industry vital to international trade [2] - The industry faces challenges such as stricter environmental regulations, oil price volatility, unstable cargo demand, and fluctuating ship supply [2] Industry Performance - Global shipping trade volume has grown steadily, reaching 11 billion tons in 2021, 12 billion tons in 2022, and 12.4 billion tons in 2023 [3] - Dry bulk, oil, and container shipping account for approximately 45%, 30%, and 15% of global shipping capacity, respectively [3] Dry Bulk Shipping - Dry bulk shipping demand recovered in 2023, with trade volume reaching 5.508 billion tons, a 3.9% YoY increase [5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,378 points in 2023, a 28.7% decline from 2022, returning to 2019 levels [5] - Global dry bulk fleet capacity reached 1.003 billion deadweight tons by the end of 2023, a 3% increase from 2022 [5] Oil Shipping - Global crude oil shipping volume reached 2.037 billion tons in 2023, a 3.2% YoY increase [6] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) experienced significant fluctuations due to OPEC+ production cuts, high US Gulf and Russian exports, and geopolitical conflicts [6] - Global crude oil tanker capacity reached 462 million deadweight tons by the end of 2023, a 1.98% increase from 2022 [6] Container Shipping - Global container trade volume remained flat at 201 million TEUs in 2023, following a 3.1% decline in 2022 [7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) averaged 941.99 points in 2023, down 3.62% from 2020 but up 14.27% from 2019 [7] - Global container fleet capacity reached 28.5193 million TEUs by the end of 2023, with a 6.08% CAGR from 2021 to 2023 [7] Shipping Costs - Fuel costs, the largest expense for shipping companies, are highly volatile due to fluctuating crude oil prices [8] - Brent crude oil prices averaged $82.64/barrel in 2023, down 18.4% from 2022 but up 16.5% from 2021 [8] Industry Concentration - The global container shipping market is highly concentrated, with the top 10 companies holding an 84.7% market share as of February 2024 [9] - MSC leads with 5.7691 million TEUs (19.68%), followed by Maersk (4.26 million TEUs, 14.53%) and CMA CGM (3.6263 million TEUs, 12.37%) [9] - Dry bulk and oil shipping markets are less concentrated, with the top 10 companies holding approximately 43% and 47% of global capacity, respectively [10] Industry Outlook - Dry bulk and oil trade demand will remain uncertain due to global economic conditions, trade policies, and geopolitical factors [11] - Container shipping demand may recover cyclically, but oversupply is expected to limit freight rate growth [11]
2024年海运行业分析
联合资信·2024-05-30 04:32