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山东黄金:三山岛取得采矿证,资源整合稳步推进
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-05-30 06:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The integration of mining rights is progressing steadily, significantly enhancing gold resources. By the end of 2023, the company (excluding Yintai Gold) holds 1,431.30 tons of gold resources, with an additional 592.19 tons from the Xiling Gold Mine exploration rights, bringing total resources to 2,023.49 tons [1]. - The merger of mining rights is expected to improve gold production capacity. The projected production scale for the integrated mining rights is 3.3 million tons per year, with an expected annual gold output of 13.386 tons in normal production years [1]. - High-quality gold mines are anticipated to lower production costs, thereby increasing profit margins. The average grade of gold in the Xiling Gold Mine is 4.04 g/t, significantly higher than the company's average grade of 1.72 g/t as of the end of 2023 [1]. - The market value per ton of resources still has room for growth. The current market value of the company's gold resources is only 0.62 billion CNY/ton, compared to historical averages of 1.03 billion CNY/ton, indicating significant upside potential [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 77 billion CNY, 86 billion CNY, and 92 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.797 billion CNY, 6.034 billion CNY, and 7.174 billion CNY [2][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.85 CNY, 1.35 CNY, and 1.60 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to decrease from 34.54 in 2024 to 18.28 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [2][5].