2024年5月策略月报：政策继续加力，信心逐步改善

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations in May, with major indices showing mixed performance. As of May 27, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3124.04 points, up 0.62% from the end of April. The STAR 50 index saw the largest decline at -3.75%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices recorded slight increases of 1.35% and 0.87%, respectively [11][28]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds began on May 17, with strong market demand observed. This issuance reflects an expansionary fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic growth and is expected to boost market confidence without significantly impacting liquidity [19][28]. Profit Analysis - Profit growth rates varied among different types of enterprises. For April, the profit growth rates for joint-stock and private enterprises were 0.90% and 6.40%, respectively, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 2.80% [16]. - In terms of industry performance, the resource extraction sector showed notable improvement, with profits in this sector increasing by 4.30% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector also saw a profit growth of 8.00% [17][39]. Liquidity and Market Sentiment - The liquidity environment in the A-share market improved compared to the previous month, with net inflows from northbound capital continuing since May. The net inflow for May reached 171.88 billion yuan, with the banking sector receiving the largest inflow of 94.17 billion yuan [46][54]. - The average turnover rate for major indices decreased in May, indicating a slight decline in market activity. The turnover rate for the ChiNext and CSI 500 indices fell by 0.11 percentage points and 0.13 percentage points, respectively [59][84]. Valuation Levels - As of May 27, the current dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for various indices indicate that the non-bank financial, coal, and real estate sectors are above the historical 50th percentile, suggesting higher valuations compared to historical averages [65][89]. - The current valuation levels for the Shanghai 50 index are at 65.70%, while the CSI 300 index stands at 50.10%, indicating a relatively high valuation environment [89].