KUAISHOU(01024) 华兴证券香港·2024-05-30 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a target price of HK56.90 [1][3][11]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue for Q1 2024 grew by 17% year-on-year to RMB 29.4 billion, aligning with expectations, while adjusted net profit margin exceeded forecasts at 14.9% [3][4]. - The e-commerce and advertising segments are expected to drive a significant increase in adjusted net profit, projected to grow by 85% year-on-year in 2024 [3][4]. - The company announced a share buyback plan of HK$16 billion over the next three years, aiming to repurchase approximately 2% of its shares annually [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 126.9 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with e-commerce GMV expected to grow by 24% [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is revised upwards to RMB 19.05 billion, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.0%, up from 9.1% in 2023 [4][10]. - The report forecasts EPS of RMB 4.35 for 2024, increasing to RMB 5.54 in 2025 and RMB 7.22 in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.7x for 2024 and 9.2x for 2025 [1][5][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 288 billion in Q1 2024, driven by an increase in monthly active users and a 70% rise in active merchants [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its multi-scenario shopping experience, with shelf e-commerce GMV growing over 50%, now accounting for 25% of total GMV [3][4]. - Advertising revenue is projected to grow by 21% in 2024, supported by strong internal advertising growth and a recovery in external advertising [4][10].