机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/丁骄琬 快手3Q 业绩：营收同增13%至356 亿，高于VA 一致预期1% (下同)。毛利率同比改善0.3pct 至54.7%， 经调整净利润同增26%至50 亿（超预期2.3%）。分业务看，直播、广告、电商收入同比分别变动3%、 14%、41%。管理层表示，可灵25 年收入有望达1.4 亿美元。我们预期4Q 广告同比增长13%，全年 Capex 上涨20 亿至140 亿元，但电商业务商业化有所放缓。 3Q 广告收入同增14%（略超预期1.1%），我们估算剔除海外的广告收入同增16%。UAX 在外循环总消 耗占比提至70%。外循环广告：3Q 短剧、小游戏与小说广告增长迅速，漫剧与短视频形态契合，有望 成为继短剧之后的新增动力。内循环广告：3Q 同比增速为中双位数，全站推广消耗占比达65%。AIGC 工具持续助力短视频素材批量生成，管理层表示其转化效率较行业平均水平高10-20%。3Q 公司推出广 告调价智能体以提升转化率，管理层表示后续将更新OneRec Think 模型，eCPM 与ROI 有望持续改善。 双11 表现符合预期，达人分销体系改善 3Q 电商和其他收入加速至41 ...

Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations with revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, slightly above the forecast of 4.82 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue Growth - Q3 2025 advertising revenue accelerated with a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by technological improvements in full-site promotion and UAX, enhancing conversion efficiency [1] - Total GMV for Q3 2025 grew by 15% to 385 billion yuan, with over 32% of GMV coming from the general merchandise category, which outpaced the overall market growth [1] AI Strategy and Implementation - The AI strategy is progressing, with the multi-modal foundational model generating over 300 million yuan in revenue during Q3, a significant increase from previous quarters [2] - AI models have enhanced advertising and e-commerce operations, contributing to a 4-5% increase in domestic advertising revenue and a nearly 5% rise in search volume for e-commerce [2] Cost Management - The company demonstrated strong cost control in Q3 2025, with management expenses significantly lower than expected, primarily due to reduced SBC costs [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 29.3%, attributed to improved marketing efficiency [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The Non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to 20.6 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast was lowered by 7% to 22 billion yuan due to AI capital expenditure [3] - The current price corresponds to 12.5/11.5 times the Non-IFRS P/E for 2025/2026, with a target price of 89 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% [3]

Core Insights - Kuaishou's revenue and profit slightly exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, achieving total revenue of 35.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% compared to the consensus estimate of 35.3 billion RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue reached 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus estimate of 19.87 billion RMB, driven by the OneRec model and AIGC marketing materials [2] - Other services, including e-commerce, generated 5.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 5.66 billion RMB [2] - E-commerce GMV was 385 billion RMB, a 15.2% year-on-year increase, aligning closely with the consensus estimate of 383.9 billion RMB [2] - Live streaming revenue was 9.57 billion RMB, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, but below the consensus estimate of 9.79 billion RMB [2] Cost Management and Profitability - Gross margin was 54.7%, slightly below the expected 55.2%, due to a 24% increase in revenue-sharing costs [1] - Operating profit reached 5.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 69.9%, supported by effective cost control [1] - Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26.3% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of 4.83 billion RMB [1] AI and Technology Developments - Kuaishou's AI revenue exceeded 300 million RMB in Q3 2025, showing growth from 250 million RMB in Q2 2025, with over 45 million global users and significant content generation [3] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced advertising capabilities and operational efficiencies in e-commerce, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 slightly increased [3]

在视频编码领域，双向编码（RA 模式）一直是高效压缩的「秘密武器」，长期以来被广泛应用于点播、视频存储等场景。然而，在基于深度学习的智能视 频编码中，这项技术也面临新的挑战：双向编码采用复杂的大跨度分层参考结构，这导致运动的精确处理变得困难，参考帧的价值利用也存在明显差异。双 向智能视频编码的潜力远未被完全激发，仍有巨大的优化空间等待探索。 为破解上述难题，快手音视频技术团队提出了全新的双向智能视频编码方法 —— BRHVC。该方法不仅在压缩性能上显著超越业内最先进的端到端智能视频 编码方案，也成功超越最新标准的 VTM-RA 编码。相关研究成果成功被人工智能领域顶级学术会议 NeurIPS 2025 录用。 视频编码（又称视频压缩）的核心价值在于破解海量视频数据与有限传输、存储资源之间的根本矛盾。未压缩的高清视频码率高达 1-3 Gbps，1 分钟 4K 视频占用近 20 GB 空间，这种数据量远超现有网络带宽和存储设备的承受能力。 对此，视频编码通过消除时空冗余、量化视觉不敏感信息，将视频码率压缩至 1/100~1/1000，使短视频、直播、视频会议、云游戏等应用成为可能。从 经济角度看，视频编码技术每年 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜快手直播今日宣布旗下自定义专属礼物特效"AI万象"第二期正式上线。据悉，基于可 灵AI与直播技术团队的技术升级，"AI万象"第二期产品在保留使用便捷优势的同时，在动态展示、主播 粉丝互动以及美学效果等层面取得了显著提升。"AI万象"目前上线十余款礼物，用户可针对生日、节日 等节点进行个性化定制。 ...

近期港股限售股解禁受到投资者关注。宁德时代H股昨日解禁，盘中股价大跌8.75%。下周将有三花智 控H股、恒瑞医药H股解禁，12 月还有海天味业解禁，这可能会对股价造成压力。自国庆后高点来，港 股通科技指数回调16%，恒生科技指数回调超18%。 从资金流入表现来看，恒生科技/港股科技/港股通互联网类持续受到资金流入，其中港股科技 ETF(159751)近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2079.57万元净流入，合计"吸金"5063.49万元， 日均净流入达1265.87万元。 展望后市，机构指出：与以往不同，今年11-12月主要机构投资者的兑现压力已经前置释放，12月中旬 之前出现系统性抛压的可能性很低，因此即使不考虑经济会议预期，在险资年底集中推仓位的环境下， 指数也是震荡偏上行的中性预期。 港股科技ETF(159751)，场外联接(A：021294；C：021295；I：022884)。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证港股通科技指数(931573)前十大权重股分别为阿里巴巴- W(09988)、腾讯控股(00700)、中芯国际(00981)、小米集团-W(01810)、比亚迪股份(01211 ...

Core Insights - Kuaishou reported a 14.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching 35.554 billion yuan, with operating profit increasing by 69.9% to 5.299 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 26.3% to 4.986 billion yuan [2][3][4] - The company has been focusing on AI-related business, with the AI product Keling generating over 300 million yuan in revenue in Q3, contributing to the overall growth strategy [3][4][6] - Kuaishou's advertising revenue, which remains the primary income source, saw a 14% increase to 20.1 billion yuan, driven by enhanced marketing material exposure and improved CPM due to AI technologies [3][4][8] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 was 35.554 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Operating profit reached 5.299 billion yuan, up 69.9% year-on-year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 4.986 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Online marketing service revenue accounted for 56.5% of total revenue, with a 14% increase to 20.1 billion yuan [3][4] AI Business Development - Keling AI revenue exceeded 300 million yuan in Q3, with a significant increase from previous quarters [3][4] - Kuaishou plans to increase capital expenditures (CapEx) significantly, focusing on computing power upgrades and technology deepening, with expectations of mid-to-high double-digit growth by 2025 [5][6] - The company is investing in both inference and training computing power for AI, indicating a long-term commitment to AI development [4][6] Market Position and Competition - Kuaishou's AI strategy is primarily focused on video generation models, which have shown potential for monetization through paid subscription models [3][7] - The competitive landscape includes established players like ByteDance and emerging startups, necessitating a robust strategy for C-end applications [7][9] - The company is exploring growth opportunities in the life services sector and content consumption industries, leveraging AI to enhance advertising effectiveness [8][9] Future Outlook - Kuaishou's management expressed confidence in achieving a year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit margin despite rising AI-related costs [6][8] - The company aims to enhance user engagement and increase average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) as key drivers for future e-commerce growth [9]

Group 1: Japan's Economic Stimulus Plan - Japan is planning a significant economic stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 961 billion RMB) to help households cope with ongoing inflation, marking the largest stimulus since the pandemic [2][3] - The plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general spending and 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [2] - The total impact, including private sector funding, could reach 42.8 trillion yen, reflecting Prime Minister Kishi's expansionary fiscal and monetary policy stance [2] Group 2: AI Development Initiatives in the U.S. - Former President Trump plans to launch the "Genesis Mission," aimed at enhancing the U.S. artificial intelligence capabilities, which is considered a strategic priority akin to the Manhattan Project [4] - The initiative may involve increased research efforts in national laboratories and promote public-private partnerships, with a focus on establishing a unified AI regulatory framework [4] - The "Genesis Mission" follows previous challenges faced by the "Stargate" initiative, indicating a shift towards more government involvement in AI development [4] Group 3: Labor Insurance Regulations in China - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has released guidelines clarifying the recognition of work-related injuries, including cases of medical malpractice and injuries during remote work [5][6] - The new standards aim to broaden the scope of work injury insurance, reflecting the evolving nature of work environments, such as remote work [5][6] - The adjustments highlight a commitment to ensuring that new employment forms, like gig economy workers, receive adequate protection [6] Group 4: E-commerce Growth in China - China's online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, with significant growth in smart products and digital services [7] - The government has issued guidelines to boost digital consumption, emphasizing the development of AI hardware and software innovations [7] - Despite the growth in online retail, the overall consumer market remains under pressure, with mixed results from major promotional events like "Double 11" [8] Group 5: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to $57.006 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, surpassing market expectations [9] - The company anticipates fourth-quarter sales to reach approximately $65 billion, indicating strong demand for AI chips and cloud GPU products [9] - CEO Jensen Huang expressed optimism about the AI industry's growth, dismissing concerns about an AI bubble, and highlighted the ongoing demand for their Blackwell chips [9][10] Group 6: Kuaishou's Financial Results - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue grew by 14.2% year-on-year to 35.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit increasing by 26.3% to 5 billion RMB [11] - The e-commerce segment saw a GMV increase of 15.2% to 385 billion RMB, driven by growth in AI-related services [11][12] - Despite a slowdown in live-streaming revenue, Kuaishou's advancements in AI technology position it well for future growth in the content ecosystem [12] Group 7: Securities Industry Consolidation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is set to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, creating a significant player in the securities industry with a capital scale exceeding 170 billion RMB [13] - This merger represents a new model for integrating smaller securities firms into larger entities, enhancing service capabilities across the industry [13] - If successful, CICC's market value could significantly increase, positioning it among the top securities firms in China [13] Group 8: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Chinese stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% amid mixed investor sentiment [14] - Despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the A-share market showed limited positive impact, with various sectors experiencing declines [14][15] - Investor concerns about potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve have led to a cautious market outlook, with heightened sensitivity to negative news [15]

前十大沽空偏离值排行 前十大沽空金额排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额↓ | 沽空比率 | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴-SW(09988) | 22.47 亿元 | 22.01% | 6.56% | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 15.97 亿元 | 12.18% | -5.08% | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 13.77 亿元 | 15.85% | -0.40% | | 小鹏汽车-W(09868) | 9.49 亿元 | 32.35% | 14.52% | | 快手-W(01024) | 7.72 亿元 | 24.75% | 2.62% | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 7.26 亿元 | 21.43% | -2.84% | | 建设银行(00939) | 5.88 亿元 | 29.04% | 3.66% | | 中国银行(03988) | 5.64 亿元 | 32.52% | 8.26% | | 友邦保险(01299) | 5.44 亿元 | 33.13% | 11.73% | | 中国宏桥(01378) | 5.41 亿元 | 26.23% ...

"国庆之后，很多人张口闭口都是漫剧，讲短剧的人都比漫剧少了"。 毫无疑问，漫剧已经接棒短剧，成为当下内容行业最炙手可热的风口。 据了解，今年末抖音漫剧的目标是日消耗量达到2400万。巨量引擎数据显示，预计2025年全年漫剧市场规模有望突破 200亿元。 两个月前，娱乐资本论曾从技术角度解读AI漫剧热潮，最近，这股热潮又有了新的助推器。 一边是头部平台取消大部分承制方保底后，真人短剧加速出清，行业二八效应加剧，在真人短剧赚不到钱的承制方寻求转型，漫剧产业将迎来更多玩家。 另一边，百度短剧、腾讯广告、阿里系UC大鱼号、抖音、快手、B站、爱奇艺、阅文等十多家平台纷纷出钱、出IP、出算力：抖音可以给到精品漫剧单 部最高百万元的扶持，爱奇艺将最高会员分成比例拉到100%，阅文、知乎、七猫、UC大鱼号、番茄、咪咕等平台加起来有超过45万部IP授权...... 对当前的竞争态势，灵炬动漫负责人吕少龙的感受是"兴奋"："很多平台短剧时代没有接招，只是观望或者浅浅投入，但现在是各个大厂进来'厮杀'，加码 加政策。"他期待不同平台的入局能让漫剧的发行渠道更加多元，未来漫剧的变现空间会更大。 不同平台加码漫剧也有不同目的。对内容平 ...