HANSOH PHARMA(03692) 华源证券·2024-05-30 14:31Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1][4] Core Views - The company is a leading innovation-driven BigPharma in China, with significant potential for international expansion [1] - The company has 8 innovative drugs approved for marketing, all included in the National Reimbursement Drug List, with innovative drug revenue reaching 6.865 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, accounting for 67.9% of total revenue [1] - The company aims to increase the contribution of innovative drugs to 80% of total revenue by 2025 [1] - The company has a strong presence in oncology, CNS, anti-infectives, and metabolic diseases, with a robust pipeline of high-value innovative products [1][2] - The company is accelerating its global strategy through international BD collaborations, with significant milestones and licensing deals, such as the $1.85 billion deal with GSK for HS-20093 [2][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 11.846 billion yuan, 12.658 billion yuan, and 14.728 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][4] - Net profits are forecasted to be 3.422 billion yuan, 3.614 billion yuan, and 4.073 billion yuan for the same periods, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28x, 26x, and 23x [2][4] - The company's fair equity value is estimated at 120.5 billion yuan, equivalent to 130.2 billion HKD, based on a DCF valuation with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and WACC of 8.29% [4] Key Therapeutic Areas Oncology - The company has a strong portfolio in oncology, with key products including Ameile (Aumolertinib) and Haosen Xinfu (Flumatinib), generating 6.169 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for 61.0% of total revenue [1][2] - Aumolertinib, a third-generation EGFR-TKI, is a leading product in the lung cancer market, with ongoing Phase III trials for adjuvant therapy and other indications [19][20] - The company is advancing its ADC pipeline, including HS-20093 (B7-H3 ADC) and HS-20089 (B7-H4 ADC), with significant global licensing deals with GSK [14][26][27] Central Nervous System (CNS) - The company has a long-standing advantage in CNS, with products like Inebilizumab (Xinyue), the only CD19 monoclonal antibody approved for NMOSD treatment [31][32] - HS-10380, targeting schizophrenia, is in Phase Ib/II clinical trials, with potential to address unmet needs in the mental health market [33][34] Anti-Infectives - The company has two self-developed innovative drugs in the anti-infective field: Hengmu (Ainuovirine) and Mailingda (Morinidazole) [35][36] - Ibrexafungerp, a fourth-generation antifungal drug, is under review for domestic approval, with potential to address recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC) [39][40] Metabolic and Other Diseases - The company has launched Fulaimei (Pegylated Loxenatide) and Shengluolai (Peginesatide), with HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, in Phase II clinical trials for diabetes and obesity [40][41] - HS-10374, a TYK2 inhibitor, is in Phase II trials, positioning the company as a global leader in this therapeutic area [43][44] - HS-10390, an ETA/AT1 dual receptor antagonist, is in Phase I trials for FSGS and IgA nephropathy, with potential to address unmet needs in renal diseases [45][46]