基础化工《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》点评：节能降碳行动方案发布，高能耗行业格局有望优化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The State Council's "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" has been released, with clear energy consumption targets. The plan aims to effectively adjust the supply side of high-energy-consuming industries such as coal chemical, industrial silicon, phosphorus chemical, and chlor-alkali, leading to an optimized industry structure [3] - In 2024, the energy consumption per unit of GDP is targeted to decrease by approximately 2.5%, and carbon dioxide emissions by about 3.9%. The energy consumption of large-scale industrial units is expected to drop by around 3.5%. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to reach about 18.9%, with energy savings of approximately 50 million tons of standard coal and a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by about 130 million tons in key sectors and industries [3] - High-energy-consuming industries may face effective supply-side adjustments due to strict control over new production capacities in sectors such as refining, calcium carbide, phosphate, and yellow phosphorus. The plan also emphasizes the need for a reasonable layout of new capacities in silicon, lithium, and magnesium industries [3] - The coal chemical industry is expected to improve as the plan emphasizes the clean and efficient use of coal, with stricter controls on coal consumption, particularly in non-electric uses. This may lead to an optimized industry structure, benefiting leading companies like Hualu Hengsheng [3] Summary by Related Categories Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the coal chemical sector, such as Hualu Hengsheng, and in high-energy-consuming industries under rigid constraints, including industrial silicon leader Hoshine Silicon Industry and phosphorus chemical leader Xingfa Group. Beneficiaries also include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Hubei Yihua, and Xinjiang Tianye in the chlor-alkali sector [3] Company Performance Forecasts - Hualu Hengsheng: 2024E EPS of 2.18, 2025E EPS of 2.67, with a 2024E PE of 13.1 [5] - Hoshine Silicon Industry: 2024E EPS of 2.73, 2025E EPS of 3.13, with a 2024E PE of 19.2 [5] - Xingfa Group: 2024E EPS of 1.63, 2025E EPS of 2.00, with a 2024E PE of 13.5 [5]