Orient Securities·2024-05-31 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][17]. Core Views - The company is focusing on GMV growth and market share, with an emphasis on user engagement and services, which is expected to lead to sustained growth [3][19]. - The company has approved a dividend of 4 billion USD for FY24 and has repurchased shares worth 4.8 billion USD in FY4Q24, totaling 12.5 billion USD for the entire fiscal year [3][17]. - The dual primary listing in Hong Kong is anticipated to be completed by the end of August [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1,033.8 billion, 1,128.5 billion, and 1,226.8 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 152.3 billion, 173.8 billion, and 197.5 billion CNY [3][17]. - For FY4Q2024, the company achieved revenue of 221.9 billion CNY, a 6.6% increase, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 219.8 billion CNY [19]. - The adjusted net profit for FY4Q2024 was 24.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 10.8% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [19]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported total revenue of 868,687 million CNY for 2023, with a projected growth of 8.34% for 2024 [4]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY24 is expected to be 165.0 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 171.5 billion CNY for FY25 [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.35% in 2023 to 12.06% by 2027 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The Taobao Group reported revenue of 89.9 billion CNY for FY4Q2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.13% [18]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group achieved revenue of 25.6 billion CNY in FY4Q2024, reflecting a 3% increase [19]. - The International Digital Commerce segment saw a revenue increase of 45% year-on-year, reaching 27.4 billion CNY in FY4Q2024 [19].