BTR NEW MATERIAL GROUP CO.(BJ:835185) Haitong Securities·2024-05-31 03:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6][10] Core Views - The company's performance slightly declined in 2023, with a revenue of 25.12 billion yuan, down 2.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.65 billion yuan, down 28.42% year-on-year. The decline was primarily due to falling product sales prices and decreased capacity utilization [5][6] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies to enhance operational quality, achieving a gross margin of 17.66% in 2023, up 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company maintains a strong position in the anode materials market, with a sales volume of over 360,000 tons in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.52% [6][8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in demand and an increase in production capacity, with projected shipments of anode materials reaching 450,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.35% [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 25.12 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.66% [5][7] - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan in 2024, 2.29 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.51 billion yuan in 2026 [7][11] Market Position - The company holds approximately 22% of the global market share in anode materials, solidifying its leading position [6][8] - The company is actively increasing its self-supply rate of graphitization, with new production lines expected to be operational in 2024 [6][8] Production and Sales Forecast - The company anticipates stable shipments of cathode materials, with expected sales of 43,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.88% [8][9] - The projected average price for anode materials is expected to remain at 33,000 yuan per ton from 2024 to 2026 [8][9] Valuation - The company is assigned a PE valuation of 18-20 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 24.67 to 27.41 yuan per share [6][10]