Shandong Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging(SZ:301188) Minsheng Securities·2024-05-31 05:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [84]. Core Viewpoints - The company is well-positioned in the high-demand and oligopolistic market for borosilicate molded bottles, which is expected to contribute significantly to its performance [84]. - The transition to self-supply of borosilicate glass tubes is anticipated to enhance the profitability of molded bottles [84]. - A decline in raw material prices is expected to restore profitability, with projected revenues of 1.32 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.84 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and corresponding net profits of 155 million, 221 million, and 262 million yuan [84]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global pharmaceutical packaging market is projected to reach 615.75 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.85% from 2023 to 2030 [8]. - The shift from low borosilicate glass to medium borosilicate glass is driven by consistency evaluations, which require packaging materials to meet the standards of reference formulations [10][11]. Company Profile - The company, Shandong Linuo Special Glass Co., Ltd., was established in 2002 and went public in November 2021. It specializes in glass new materials, with a significant market share in heat-resistant glass [108]. - The company has established long-term cooperative relationships with major pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its competitive advantage in the market [40]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 947.37 million, 1.32 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.84 billion yuan from 2023 to 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15%, 39%, 22%, and 14% respectively [54]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 17.44% in 2023 to 24.95% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [54]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant market share of 70-80% in the domestic medium borosilicate molded bottle market, with significant barriers to entry for competitors [18]. - The company is actively expanding its production lines for medium borosilicate glass tubes, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and improve cost efficiency [20]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for medium borosilicate glass products, with revenue contributions projected to reach 701.23 million, 900.84 million, and 1.03 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [54]. - The anticipated recovery in overseas demand for heat-resistant glass is expected to drive growth in exports, with a significant portion of revenue coming from international markets [51].