有色金属行业《2024-2025年节能降碳行动方案》点评：节能降碳再强调，行业供给或全面优化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" by the State Council, which mandates strict control over capacity in the non-ferrous metals industry, aiming for a comprehensive optimization of supply [3] - The plan emphasizes the development of recycled metals, particularly benefiting leading companies in electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum sectors [3] - The report suggests that the strict enforcement of capacity replacement and control over new capacities in electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and copper will lead to a more balanced supply-demand situation, potentially improving profitability in the alumina sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of electrolytic aluminum production, with a built capacity of 45.19 million tons/year and an operational capacity of 42.62 million tons/year as of April 2024, indicating a ceiling on supply growth due to strict capacity replacement [3] - For alumina, the built capacity reached 100 million tons/year by March 2024, which is significantly higher than the electrolytic aluminum capacity, leading to long-term low or negative profits in the alumina industry [3] Capacity Control Measures - The action plan requires that new and expanded electrolytic aluminum and alumina projects meet energy efficiency benchmarks and mandatory energy consumption limits [3] - The report notes that as of December 2023, the refined copper capacity in China was 13.3 million tons/year, with current tight supply conditions expected to improve due to the control of new copper smelting capacities [3] Market Opportunities - The report anticipates that by the end of 2025, 30% of electrolytic aluminum production will meet energy efficiency benchmarks, and the use of renewable energy will exceed 25% [3] - The recycled aluminum sector is projected to grow, with a target of 24% of total aluminum supply coming from recycled sources by 2025, translating to an expected production of 1.367 million tons of recycled aluminum [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that will benefit from the optimization of industry supply, particularly in the electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum sectors [3] - Specific companies highlighted include China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Nanshan Aluminum, Mingtai Aluminum, and Yiqiu Resources [3]