宏观策略周报

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve meeting indicates a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation concerns, with the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.46%[7] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed 105, reflecting a 0.2% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.33%[7] - The CRB commodity index increased by 0.18%, indicating overall stability in commodity markets despite geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar[7] Domestic Market Trends - In the week of May 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities rose by 1.43% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 31.4%[9] - Domestic pork prices increased by 1.47% week-on-week, marking the highest growth in three months, while vegetable prices fell by 2.86%[25] - Passenger car sales showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in daily retail, but overall market recovery remains weak, with an estimated 1.65 million units sold in May, down 5.3% year-on-year[14] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders rebounded with a 0.7% increase in April, exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% decline[35] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for May reached 47.4, surpassing expectations and indicating a strengthening economic outlook[53] - The U.S. housing market remains tight, with existing home sales down 1.9% month-on-month, and the median home price rising to $407,600, the highest in 25 years[20] Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation suggests maintaining 25% in equities, 15% in government bonds, and 40% in cash, reflecting a cautious investment approach amid market volatility[67] - The report recommends monitoring the support level at 2285 for gold, with expectations of limited downside potential despite recent price corrections[63]