宏观专题报告：新一轮地产新政对大宗商品市场的影响

Economic Impact - The new round of real estate policies aims to stabilize and strengthen domestic economic development, reducing the drag from the real estate sector on the economy[70] - In 2023, real estate development investment reached CNY 110,913 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, accounting for 21.8% of total fixed asset investment, down from 24.5% in 2022[70] - Real estate sales amounted to CNY 116,622 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, representing 9.3% of nominal GDP, down from 11.1% in 2022[70] Policy Measures - The central bank will establish a CNY 300 billion guarantee housing relending quota, which is below market expectations[48] - The minimum down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers has been adjusted to no less than 15%, and for second homes to no less than 25%, significantly lowering the purchasing threshold[41] - The government encourages local state-owned enterprises to acquire unsold residential properties at reasonable prices for use as affordable housing[41] Market Reactions - The new policies are expected to enhance market sentiment, boosting stock market risk appetite and stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, while negatively impacting the bond market[48] - The real estate policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for steel and other commodities, as it directly correlates with new construction activities[50] - The overall sentiment in the copper market is expected to improve due to anticipated increases in demand from the real estate sector, potentially driving copper prices higher[51]