首席周观点：2024年第22周

Group 1: Macro Overview - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a traditional consumption peak in the second half of the year, with a low probability of recession. High-income growth has significantly declined, while low-income growth remains stable, indicating typical post-cycle characteristics. Real disposable income per capita has fallen below CPI year-on-year, suggesting a slight weakening of consumption momentum [2][6] - Bank credit has loosened, which is beneficial for investment rebound, and corporate interest expenses as a percentage of GDI are at historical lows. However, the April non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in local government employment, while cyclical industry employment has remained low for four consecutive months [2][6] - The report suggests that while there is a marginal improvement in inventory replenishment, the sustainability of this improvement remains uncertain. A recession is viewed as delayed rather than absent, with the earliest interest rate cut potentially linked to a core CPI drop of 0.4% [2][6] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - The anticipated recovery in exports at the end of last year is driving a rebound in manufacturing investment, although overseas data does not yet support this [3][9] - The report indicates that the recovery in consumption growth is not as strong as last year due to base effects, and the GDP growth target of 5% requires active macro policy support. Current policies align with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year, indicating a consistent approach [9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a moderate increase in allocation to short-term bonds with maturities of two years or less, maintaining positions in U.S. stocks without increasing exposure, and not reducing gold positions [7][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in blue-chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, as their performance is highly correlated with the economic cycle and shows slight leading indicators [22] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Dongxing Securities highlights the company’s strategic entry into the carbon fiber processing sector, with a focus on high-quality products that have attracted premium clients in the consumer electronics industry, including Lenovo [11][27] - The company’s revenue is steadily growing, and while its gross margin has faced some decline since 2020 due to industry fluctuations, it is gradually recovering in 2023 [11][27] - The company has set ambitious performance targets through its stock incentive plan, aiming for a revenue of no less than 1.32 billion in 2024 and a cumulative revenue of no less than 3.22 billion from 2024 to 2025, reflecting strong confidence in its growth trajectory [15][28]