Guoxin Securities·2024-05-31 10:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Ctrip Group is entering a new development cycle by integrating domestic and international travel services, aiming to become the leading online travel platform in Asia and the foremost global transportation ticketing platform within the next 3-5 years [5][29] - The company achieved a GMV of $160 billion in 2023, surpassing Booking's $150.6 billion, indicating its strong market position [6] - Ctrip's profit margins have shown significant improvement, with a Non-GAAP net profit growth of 100% compared to 2019, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and marketing effectiveness [6][18] Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - Ctrip's online outbound travel market share is approximately 54%, with expectations for revenue from outbound travel to recover to 85%-100% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024, contributing an estimated profit increase of 0.7-1.8 billion [7] - The company has maintained a strong performance in domestic travel, with a recovery rate of 81.38% in terms of travel volume compared to 2019 [38] Growth Outlook - The report forecasts that Ctrip will maintain a double-digit growth rate in its international expansion over the next 3-5 years, leveraging its established supply chain and customer service systems [7][29] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of international flight capacity and improved visa policies, which will enhance outbound travel demand [64][69] Competitive Landscape - The online travel agency (OTA) sector is experiencing a shift towards improved profitability and operational efficiency, with Ctrip positioned to capitalize on these trends [21][27] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with a focus on profitability and efficiency among key players, allowing Ctrip to leverage its first-mover advantages [21][27] Financial Projections - The report maintains projections for Ctrip's Non-GAAP net profit at 15.5 billion, 18.7 billion, and 22 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 16, 14, and 11 [7][29] - The company is expected to achieve a market capitalization of approximately 3.092 to 3.401 trillion RMB by 2024, indicating a potential upside of 22%-35% from current levels [7][29]