Haitong Securities·2024-05-31 10:31Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 36% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 186.27 billion yuan, up 7.7% from the previous year [6][8] - The company has successfully ramped up production across various mineral products, with copper production increasing by 51% to 419,500 tons and cobalt production soaring by 174% to 55,526 tons in 2023 [6][7] - The company is strategically positioned to enhance its production capacity, with plans to produce between 520,000 to 570,000 tons of copper and 60,000 to 70,000 tons of cobalt in 2024 [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 8.25 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 1.5425 yuan per 10 shares [6] - The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 46.12 billion yuan, a 4.2% increase, and net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, a staggering 553.3% increase [6] Production Capacity - The company has a robust production capacity supported by its own mines, with 94% of raw material costs coming from self-owned mines [6] - The TFM copper-cobalt mine has a copper resource of 30.63 million tons and a cobalt resource of 3.34 million tons, with production capacity expected to reach 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt annually [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a complete layout in new energy metals, including copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium, through strategic partnerships and acquisitions [7] - The company’s subsidiary, IXM, is a leading global metal trading company, achieving a record net profit of 913 million yuan in 2023 [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with expected EPS of 0.53, 0.62, and 0.72 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][12] - The report anticipates a reasonable valuation range of 9.54 to 10.60 yuan based on a PE ratio of 18-20 times [7][8]