KUNLUN ENERGY(00135) 东吴证券·2024-06-02 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [1] Core Views - Kunlun Energy is positioned as a leading urban gas company, benefiting from its strategic transformation and strong backing from its major shareholder, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [9][21] - The company is expected to enhance its return on equity (ROE) by improving the efficiency of its liquid assets, potentially increasing ROE by 5.3 percentage points [10][14] - The natural gas sales business is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the industrial sector, supported by favorable government policies promoting industrial transfer to the northwest and northeast regions of China [22][27] Summary by Sections Strategic Transformation - Kunlun Energy transitioned from oil and gas exploration to focusing on domestic natural gas terminal sales and comprehensive utilization since 2009, becoming a major player in the urban gas market [9][10] - The company has undergone continuous restructuring of its downstream business since 2012, enhancing its focus on urban gas, LNG processing, and LPG sales [9][10] Business Performance - The company reported total revenue of 177,726 million yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 190,778 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.34% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 5,682 million yuan in 2023 to 6,106 million yuan in 2024, representing an 8.68% increase [2] - The retail gas volume reached 303.12 billion cubic meters in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% from 2018 to 2023, significantly outpacing the national average of 7.1% [22][23] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 61.06 billion yuan, 65.60 billion yuan, and 70.60 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5, 9.8, and 9.1 [42][41] - The company aims to achieve a dividend payout ratio of 45% by 2025, enhancing shareholder returns [18][19] Market Position - Kunlun Energy is the largest urban gas sales company in China, with a significant market presence across 31 provinces, benefiting from stable gas supply and pricing [9][10] - The company has a strong strategic alignment with CNPC, ensuring reliable gas sources and stable profit margins [21][27]