拱东医疗：医用高分子供应商，业绩将重回快速增长

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [4][43][71] Core Views - The company is a global supplier of medical polymer materials, with a focus on medical consumables for nearly 40 years [41][86] - The acquisition of TPI in the US enhances global production capacity and strengthens the company's position in the US market [4] - The company's core products include experimental testing, vacuum blood collection systems, body fluid collection, drug packaging, and medical care [35][86] - The company has established long-term partnerships with global pharmaceutical giants such as McKesson, Medline, and IDEXX [8][47] - The company's overseas revenue reached a record high of 531 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 22% [39] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.40, 1.82, and 2.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.66%, 30.05%, and 30.01% respectively [16][71] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 265, 353, and 464 million yuan, with growth rates of 143.00%, 33.18%, and 31.39% respectively [9][16][71] - The current PE ratios are 21x, 15x, and 12x for 2024-2026 [9][16][71] Business Segments - Experimental Testing: Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 624, 886, and 1.26 billion yuan, with growth rates of 80.00%, 42.00%, and 42.00% respectively [91][95] - Vacuum Blood Collection Systems: Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 329, 372, and 416 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.00%, 13.00%, and 12.00% respectively [35][56] - Body Fluid Collection: Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 180, 208, and 232 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.00%, 15.00%, and 12.00% respectively [18][61] - Drug Packaging: Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 107, 155, and 217 million yuan, with growth rates of 80.00%, 45.00%, and 40.00% respectively [56][95] - Medical Care: Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 93.6, 131, and 170 million yuan, with growth rates of 60.00%, 40.00%, and 30.00% respectively [30] Capacity Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity through technological upgrades, acquisitions, and land auctions [4][53] - In 2022, the production of vacuum blood collection tubes and medical consumables increased by 22.5% and 14.7% respectively [4] - The acquisition of TPI in 2023 further strengthened the company's overseas production capacity [4][53] Market Position - The company is a key player in the global medical polymer materials industry, with a strong presence in the US, Europe, and other regions [4][8] - The company's products are sold in over 100 countries and regions [8] - The company's closed IVD business has seen rapid growth, with revenue reaching 404 million yuan in 2022, a CAGR of 78.69% from 2019-2022 [101] Industry Outlook - The global IVD market is expected to grow from 74.3 billion USD in 2018 to 106.3 billion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.41% [24] - The domestic low-value consumables market in China reached 130 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 23% [53] - The domestic pharmaceutical packaging market is expected to reach 157 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.59% from 2018-2024 [70]