Daqo Energy(SH:688303) Haitong Securities·2024-06-03 00:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][7] Core Views - The company has steadily increased its production capacity and maintains a strong financial position, with cash reserves of 17.4 billion and a low debt ratio of 12.09% as of Q1 2024 [6][8] - The company is focusing on product iteration, with a high proportion of N-type silicon material in its output, achieving 69.0% in production and 68.6% in sales for Q1 2024 [6][7] - The company is integrating upstream operations by enhancing its industrial silicon and round silicon core businesses, which helps in controlling raw material quality and costs [6][7] - The company is expanding into semiconductor-grade polysilicon, which has higher purity requirements, and has successfully launched its first batch of products from its new facility [7][8] Summary by Sections Production and Capacity - As of the end of 2023, the company's high-purity polysilicon production capacity reached 205,000 tons, with plans to expand to 305,000 tons by mid-2024 [6][9] - The company achieved a polysilicon sales volume of 200,000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50.48% [6][9] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.33 billion in 2023, a decrease of 47.2% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of 12.59 billion in 2024 [8][10] - The net profit for 2023 was 5.76 billion, down 69.9% year-on-year, with expectations of further declines in 2024 [8][10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 40.3%, expected to drop to 6.2% in 2024, before recovering to 12.8% in 2025 [8][10] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The estimated book value per share for 2024-2026 is projected to be 20.82, 21.57, and 22.63 respectively, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 1.29, 1.24, and 1.18 [7][11] - The company is assigned a reasonable value range of 27.06 to 31.22 based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.3 to 1.5 for 2024 [7][11]