低估值、高报表端增长韧性，把握白酒修复机会

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The new cycle has begun, with price band rotation and recovery already in progress. The long-term development of the liquor industry can be divided into two phases: before 2016, characterized by simultaneous volume and price increases, and from 2016 to the present, marked by volume reduction and price increases. The industry has shown resilience despite macroeconomic pressures, with a notable recovery in consumption observed in early 2023 [11][12][13] - The valuation of the liquor sector has reached a high level of cost-effectiveness, with many leading companies' price-to-earnings (PE) ratios falling below the 10% percentile. The sector's current valuation is relatively low compared to other consumption sectors, providing a strong safety cushion [2][18][20] - The dividend rates in the liquor sector are expected to steadily increase, aligning with changes in the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's assessment criteria. The leading company, Kweichow Moutai, has set a precedent for high dividends, with the overall sector's dividend rate rising to 47.7% in 2023 [3][28][29] Summary by Sections Long-term Perspective - The liquor industry's development has transitioned from a phase of simultaneous volume and price increases to one of volume reduction and price increases since 2016. The SW liquor index has shown a steady upward trend from 2016 to 2017, followed by a rapid increase starting in 2019. The index has experienced fluctuations in 2021 and 2022, but resilience has been demonstrated in 2023 [11][12][14] Short-term Perspective - The sector's fundamentals have shown marginal improvement, with most companies achieving satisfactory results in the first quarter of 2024. The actual sales during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in the market. The performance of individual stocks has varied, with some experiencing significant gains [16][17][30] Valuation - As of May 29, 2024, the PE ratios of many leading liquor companies have fallen below the 10% percentile, indicating a substantial safety cushion. The sector's valuation has adjusted following the initial high expectations for post-pandemic recovery, with many companies' valuations now below the levels seen in November 2022 [2][18][19][20] Dividends - The liquor sector, primarily led by state-owned enterprises, is expected to see a continuous increase in dividend levels. Kweichow Moutai has set a high standard for dividends, and the overall sector's dividend rate has increased significantly, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3][28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for recovery, specifically recommending stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiuziyuan, Wuliangye, and Shede Liquor [4][30]