T Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 证 券 研 究 报 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 固定收益点评 2025 年 5 月 28 日 日债利率为何大幅上行？ 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】6 月资金面关注什么》 2025-05-26 2.《【华福固收】债券加速到期清偿怎么 看》2025-05-25 Table_First e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s a 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 观 利 率 点 评 告 r i F _ e l b Table_First|Table_Contacter lhr30501@hfzq Table_First|Table_RelateReport ➢ 截至 2025 年 5 月24日，10年期日本国债收益率上行至1.57%，较年初上行 约45bp；20年期日本国债收益率上行至2.52%，较年初上行约63bp，达到近 20年最高值；30年期日本国债收益率更是达到2.93%的历史峰值，自4月以 来上行约44bp，较年初上行约68b ...

证券研究报告|专题研究 25年05月28日 华福证券 非美出海2.0：关税压力下的中欧突围 ——策略专题报告 证券分析师： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 研究助理： 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 章孟菲 S0210525020004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 特朗普关税政策2.0"not only China" "but also Europe" 。 25年至今，美国不仅施压 中国，而且多次对 "所有国家"加征关税。美传统盟友的欧盟也无法避免。这或说明，本轮 关税政策的意图不仅仅是中美竞争，更是重构"全球"贸易链。 强压之下，非美地区或加强贸易交流。在美强压之下，其余贸易体或需要通过加强合作，来弥 补对美的贸易份额、稳定自身对外贸易。25年至今，中、欧的出口地区结构已经发生改变。 海关数据：寻找量、价双优的非美区域亮点。我们根据出口金额选取14类代表商品，以对非 美地区出口作为主视角展开分析。1）地区分散：令人意外的是，非美地区占据其中8类出口 金额的绝对比重（油车、电车、光伏电池、船舶、工程机械、空调、电视、集成电路）。2） 利润可观：拆分商品 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 28 日 【华福固收】科创债系列：把握科创债投资价值 新政落地以来，科创债发行情况有何新变化 从债券类型来看，金融债的发行数量最多发行规模最大；从发行主体来看，银 行主体的发行规模最大，但产业主体的发行数量最多。自2025年5月6日科创债 的一揽子配套政策落地以来已经超过两周的时间，在此期间市场共发行了148 只科创债，合计发行规模3242.42亿元，发行明显提速。从发行的债券类型来 看，金融债是主要的债券类型，其次为短期融资券和公司债。 从企业类型来看，高等级央国企的发行数量和规模占比仍更高，未见AA及以下 的民企新发科创债。具体来看，近期新发科创债的主体仍以央国企为主，发行 数量和规模占比分别为81.76%和84.21%，央企的发行数量相对较少，但整体发 行规模更大。从主体评级来看，AAA和AA+的债券数量占比为93.92%，其中民营 企业和公众企业的主体评级均在AA+及以上，信用资质较弱的民企短期内或仍 面临融资难的问题。 从期限结构来看，近期发行上市的科创债发行期限仍集中在3年期及以内，民 企新发科创债的期限均未超 ...

评 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 全年实现收入 103.0 亿（同比-9.7%），归母净利润 12.6 亿（同比-36.1%），扣非归母净利润 10.1 亿（同比-39.3%）；25Q1：实现收入 24.8 亿（同比+5.4%），归母净利润 3.7 亿（同比+1.9%），扣非归母净利润 3.8 亿（同比+26.9%）。 医疗设备 2025 年 05 月 27 日 公 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 联影医疗（688271.SH） 25Q1 扣非业绩增速亮眼，首创类+超声等重磅新 品持续加码 投资要点： 关键核心技术被侵权的风险、研发失败或无法产业化的风险、实 施集中采购的政策风险、国际化经营及业务拓展风险。 国内招投标趋势加速、25Q1 业绩修复性增长：随着政策落地及市场回 暖，众成数科数据显示，24M12-25M3 影像招标快速提升，25 年一季度公 司收入及利润端均实现恢复性增长，随着装机加速，报表端有望持续兑现。 海外加速高端渗透、新兴市场加速落地：2024 年海外营收 22 亿元（同 比+34%），高端机型在全球签单近 300 台（海外毛利率 47%，显著同比提 升 6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with expectations for recovery driven by overseas expansion and domestic market recovery [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.471 billion (up 0.62% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.194 billion (down 1.89% year-on-year) for 2024, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 996 million (down 8.56% year-on-year) and a net profit of 270 million (down 16.76% year-on-year) [3][5]. - The company is actively responding to centralized procurement impacts, with expectations for recovery in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 25.56 billion in immunodiagnostics (up 2.91% year-on-year), while biochemical testing revenue was 2.22 billion (down 11.21% year-on-year), and microbiological testing revenue was 3.61 billion (up 11.48% year-on-year) [5]. - The overseas business generated revenue of 284 million in 2024 (up 36.25% year-on-year), indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 17.2%, management expense ratio of 4.7%, and R&D expense ratio of 16.4% (up 1.6 percentage points) [6]. Product Development and Market Position - The company launched new products including the AutoChem B2000 and B8000 series of fully automated biochemical analyzers, and the Autof T series of microbial mass spectrometry detection systems [6]. - In the NGS segment, the company’s subsidiary successfully launched three gene sequencers and an automated pathogen analysis system, with further products in trial production [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 2.2, 2.6, and 3.0 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [7]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic IVD platform, with increased R&D investment expected to enhance competitiveness [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in performance, with a reported revenue of 278 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit of 78 million yuan, up 92.9% year-on-year [4]. - The growth is driven by the expansion of existing products and the introduction of new products, particularly in the hemostatic gauze and dural adhesive segments, which are expected to enter a rapid commercialization phase [5]. - The company has optimized its cost structure, leading to a decrease in sales expense ratio, which was 15.8% in Q1 2025, down from 20.54% for the entire year of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 278 million yuan, with a net profit of 79 million yuan, and for Q1 2025, revenue reached 73 million yuan, reflecting a 28.8% year-on-year growth [4]. - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 370 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 560 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 26%, and 22% [5]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 120 million yuan, 158 million yuan, and 201 million yuan, with growth rates of 53%, 32%, and 27% [5]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.81 yuan in 2025, 2.38 yuan in 2026, and 3.02 yuan in 2027 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 54.1 in 2024 to 21.2 by 2027, indicating improving valuation [6]. - The gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 79.3% in 2024 to 75.3% in 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to improve from 28.3% to 35.6% over the same period [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [35]. Core Insights - Xiaomi has launched its self-developed 3nm flagship SoC chip, "Xuanjie O1," making it the fourth global smartphone manufacturer to have its own flagship mobile SoC chip after Apple, Samsung, and Huawei. This chip utilizes TSMC's second-generation 3nm process technology, N3E, and integrates 6-core NPU with a computing power of 44 TOPS, which is expected to enhance China's high-end SoC R&D capabilities and drive the domestic chip industry upgrade in the long term [3][4]. - The power semiconductor sector is witnessing a significant recovery, with revenue and net profit growth of 18% and 34% year-on-year, respectively, in Q1 2025. This marks a notable improvement from a 9% revenue growth and a -32% net profit growth in Q1 2024 [5][15]. - The average inventory turnover days for power semiconductor companies have decreased from 156 days in Q1 2024 to 142 days in Q1 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency and rising industry prosperity [5][18]. - The gross margin for power semiconductor companies has stabilized above 30%, while the net profit margin has increased from 4.44% in Q1 2024 to 11.66% in Q1 2025, showing a clear recovery trend [6][25]. Summary by Sections Power Semiconductor Business Recovery - In Q1 2025, the total revenue for power semiconductors reached 14.56 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, while net profit totaled 1.52 billion, up 34% year-on-year [21][16]. - The revenue growth trend has been improving since Q1 2024, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [15]. Profitability Recovery of Power Semiconductor Companies - The average gross margin for power semiconductor companies has remained stable at over 30%, and the net profit margin has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in profitability [25][29]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the power semiconductor sector include: New Clean Energy, Wente Technology, China Resources Microelectronics, Yangjie Technology, Silan Microelectronics, Jiejie Microelectronics, Star Semiconductor, Galaxy Microelectronics, Dongwei Microelectronics, and Hongwei Technology. In the chip design sector, recommended companies include: Chipone Technology, Aojie Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Rockchip, Allwinner Technology, and Juchip Technology. For mergers and acquisitions, companies to watch include: Northern Huachuang, Chip Source Microelectronics, and Haiguang Information [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 3.924 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 826 million yuan, a significant increase of 536.09% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 11.85% year-on-year, totaling 885 million yuan, and a net profit decrease of 52.19%, amounting to 85 million yuan [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations do not alter the company's long-term growth potential, particularly as it positions itself as a unique overseas formulation commercialization platform [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.24 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.26 billion yuan, with Q4 showing a revenue increase of 5.84% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue from the heparin raw material segment, down 51.61% year-on-year, while the formulation business grew by 18.30% [4][5]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 1.063 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 29%, 33%, and 30% projected for the following years [5][6]. Market Opportunities - The global biosimilar market is anticipated to grow rapidly as key biological drug patents expire, presenting significant opportunities for the company [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including the full asset acquisition of Coherus BioSciences' adalimumab biosimilar, which has already generated over 70 million yuan in sales since its launch [5][6]. - The upcoming approval of liraglutide in April 2025 is expected to convert prior investments into substantial revenue growth [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronics sector [6]. Core Insights - Xiaomi has officially launched its self-developed 3nm SoC chip, the玄戒 O1, positioning itself as the fourth global company to release a 3nm mobile chip after Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek [3]. - The total R&D investment for the玄戒 project has exceeded 13.5 billion RMB, with an expected investment of over 6 billion RMB in 2025 alone, aiming for a long-term commitment of at least 50 billion RMB over the next decade [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the chip in establishing a competitive edge through a "chip + AI + OS" ecosystem, moving from "assembly innovation" to "bottom-level definition" [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronics industry index fell by 2.17% during the week of May 19-23, with the sector ranking 28th among all industries [11]. - The electronic chemicals sector experienced the largest decline at -1.03%, while the consumer electronics sector had the smallest decline at -3.18% [13]. Company Dynamics - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Xiaomi Group and its related supply chain, including companies like Chipone Technology, Huada Semiconductor, and others [4]. - Notable stock performances include Fulede with a 25.43% increase and Huiwei Intelligent with a 20.73% decrease [16]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the global semiconductor capital expenditure increased by 27% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by investments in AI applications [34]. - TSMC announced a 10% price increase for its 2nm wafers due to rising costs associated with overseas factory construction and capital expenditure plans [32]. Product Developments - The玄戒 O1 chip features a 10-core architecture with dual super-large cores and a total of 190 billion transistors, achieving significant performance metrics [3]. - The AI processing unit of the玄戒 O1 has a computing power of 44 TOPS, supporting parallel algorithm computations [3]. Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi's market share in China increased from 13% to 19% year-on-year, while Apple's share declined from 21% to 15% [50][51]. - In the global wearable market, Xiaomi regained the top position with a 44% increase in shipments, reaching 8.7 million units [55].

Group 1 - The report highlights that US stocks faced dual pressures from debt risks and escalating tariffs, leading to a decline across major indices, with the S&P 500 down by 2.61% [2][8] - The report notes a significant rise in the 30-year US Treasury yield, surpassing 5%, indicating market concerns regarding US sovereign credit risk and long-term inflation [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and other key economic data, as the potential implementation of tariffs on June 1 could further pressure US stocks [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates mixed performance in global major asset classes, with NYMEX platinum showing the highest increase at 10.22%, while the S&P 500 experienced the largest decline at 2.61% [3][29] - In the equity market, the Hang Seng Index recorded the highest gain at 1.10%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all faced declines [3][34] - The report details sector performance, noting that the materials sector in the US saw a slight increase of 0.10%, while the real estate sector faced the largest decline at 3.55% [3][40] Group 3 - The report provides updates on key US economic data, including a decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for April to -1%, and an increase in new home sales to an annualized rate of 743,000 units [2][8] - The report mentions that the US manufacturing and services PMIs for May both exceeded previous values and expectations, both standing at 52.3 [2][8] - The report highlights that existing home sales in the US for April were annualized at 4 million units, slightly below previous and expected values [2][8]