银行行业深度：关注基本面预期差及个股分化

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "In Line with the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is currently under pressure, with revenue growth declining and profit release facing challenges. In Q1 2024, the revenue growth rate for listed banks was -1.73%, a decline of 0.92 percentage points compared to 2023, and a further decline of 0.90 percentage points compared to Q4 2023 [6][10] - The net profit growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2024 was -0.61%, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points from 2023, but an improvement of 1.87 percentage points from Q4 2023. Provisioning and tax contributions were significant factors for profit release [6][10] - Asset quality remains stable, with most listed banks showing a flat or declining non-performing loan (NPL) ratio compared to the end of the previous year. However, some retail banks with a higher proportion of retail loans and weaker regional economic strength saw an increase in NPL ratios [6][10] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Review - 1.1 Performance Overview - The banking sector's revenue is under pressure, with a significant number of banks experiencing negative revenue growth. In Q1 2024, 15 banks reported negative revenue growth, primarily among state-owned and joint-stock banks, while 27 banks achieved positive growth, mainly among quality regional banks [12][10] - 1.2 Performance Breakdown - 1.2.1 Net Interest Income - In Q1 2024, 14 banks reported positive growth in net interest income, with seven banks exceeding 5% growth. The median net interest margin for listed banks was 1.59%, reflecting a year-on-year decline [17][19] - 1.2.2 Net Non-Interest Income - The overall non-interest income faced pressure, with most banks reporting negative growth in fee and commission income due to market volatility. However, some banks like Changshu and Ruifeng saw significant growth in this area [26][28] 2. Fundamental Outlook - The banking sector's fundamentals remain under pressure, but there are signs of improvement. New loan issuance rates are rising, and the shift in real estate policies is expected to alleviate concerns about asset quality. The wealth management market is also showing signs of recovery, benefiting banks with a high proportion of non-interest income [6][10] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong asset quality management and sustainable capital growth, such as China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [6][10]