aisidi(002416) 国泰君安·2024-06-03 12:01Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company with a target price of 14.50 RMB, compared to the current price of 9.88 RMB [135] Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's mobile phone distribution and retail industry, with significant competitive advantages and a strong growth trajectory driven by resource and channel networks [6] - With the recovery of consumer electronics and the increasing penetration of AI-enabled smartphones, the company's future development is promising [6][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI and foldable smartphones, which could catalyze a new wave of device upgrades [10][13][70] Valuation and Financial Forecasts - The company's EV/EBITDA valuation is estimated at 14.17 RMB per share, based on a comparison with peers such as Bailian, Huazhi, Kidswant, and Tianyin [4] - Revenue is projected to grow from 92.16 billion RMB in 2023 to 100.19 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 2.1% to 3.2% [7][134] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 655 million RMB in 2023 to 886 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.6% to 11.2% [7][134] Industry Outlook - The global smartphone market is recovering, with Q1 2024 shipments increasing by 7.8% YoY to 289.4 million units, signaling a rebound in demand [69] - China's smartphone market also showed signs of recovery, with Q1 2024 shipments growing by 6.5% YoY to 69.26 million units [69] - AI-enabled smartphones and foldable devices are expected to drive a new wave of upgrades, with AI smartphones projected to account for 5% of global shipments in 2024 and 45% by 2027 [76][105] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive moat through its resource advantages, extensive channel network, efficient supply chain system, and digital capabilities [16][18][22] - It operates over 10,000 offline stores and more than 3,000 Apple-authorized stores, making it the largest Apple APR retailer in China [22][62] - The company has a comprehensive online presence, covering major e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD, and Douyin, with online sales growing by 120% YoY in 2023 [59] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 55.8 billion RMB in 2019 to 92.16 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.3% [81] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 344 million RMB in 2019 to 655 million RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 17.5% [81] - The company maintains a stable gross margin of around 3.1% to 3.4%, with a net margin of 0.7% to 0.9% [26][83] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 60% in the past five years, with a dividend yield of 3.51% in 2023 [114][115] - Future dividend policies are expected to remain robust, supported by stable cash flows and profitability [114] Future Plans - The company plans to focus on operational efficiency, channel network expansion, and overseas market development in 2024 [103] - It will also closely monitor the development of AI-enabled smartphones and explore opportunities in this emerging segment [103]