工业自动化行业更新报告：机遇与挑战并存，国产替代和出海共舞

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" with a focus on the power electronics equipment sector [1]. Core Insights - The post-pandemic era has initiated a fifth cycle in the industrial control sector, characterized by domestic substitution and overseas expansion, with local services better meeting Chinese market demands [1][6]. - The industrial control industry is expected to see a weak recovery in demand in the second half of 2024, with companies capable of domestic substitution and overseas expansion likely to gain market share [1][6]. - The overall revenue growth for industrial control companies in 2024 is projected to remain high, between 15% and 40% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Opportunities and Challenges in the Industrial Control Market - The industrial control industry has experienced four cycles since 2008, with the current cycle driven by post-pandemic trends and the rise of humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [6]. - The market is expected to follow an "L" curve development, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 15% from 2002 to 2022, but a slowdown is anticipated in the coming years [7]. 2. Market Share Dynamics - The project-based market share is expected to increase, with the OEM market benefiting from equipment renewal policies. As of 2023, the OEM market size reached 105.25 billion yuan, while the project market size was 185.76 billion yuan, with respective shares of 36% and 64% [12][14]. - The project market has shown continuous growth for seven years, with strong performance in process industries like petrochemicals and oil [12]. 3. Trends in Automation Sub-sectors - In the variable frequency drive (VFD) market, the overall market size reached 30.41 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable concentration of market share among leading companies [17][20]. - The servo market has seen a significant increase in domestic market share, with local companies capturing a larger portion of the market, raising the domestic substitution rate from 17.79% to 44.02% [23][25]. - The PLC market has shown mixed results, with small PLCs experiencing growth while large PLCs remain dominated by foreign brands [29][33]. 4. Domestic Substitution and Overseas Expansion - The domestic substitution trend has accelerated, with local brands increasing their market share from 37.9% in 2019 to 43.7% in 2022 [40][42]. - The global industrial automation market reached 480.73 billion USD in 2023, with significant opportunities for Chinese companies to expand overseas, particularly in emerging markets [50][52]. - Companies like 汇川科技 and 伟创电气 have reported substantial growth in overseas revenues, indicating a successful international expansion strategy [52][55].