宏观策略周报

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic A-share market showed overall weakness due to insufficient confidence in the real estate new policy and a decline in domestic economic sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to stabilize above 3100 points [10] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly above 2.3%, while the domestic commodity index generally declined due to the drop in international commodities and a significant correction in black indices, although gold remained strong with a weekly increase of 0.39% [10][44] - The report notes that the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major and medium-sized cities significantly increased by 28.7% week-on-week, indicating a notable recovery in real estate transactions following the implementation of the new policy [27] Group 2 - The report states that the manufacturing PMI for May fell by 0.9 to 49.5, slightly below expectations, with both supply and demand declining, indicating a slowdown in production growth [50] - The report mentions that the non-manufacturing PMI for services rose by 0.2 points to 50.5, showing a slight acceleration in expansion, while the construction PMI fell by 1.9 points to 54.4, indicating that the support from real estate recovery and infrastructure is still not evident [25] - The report indicates that the domestic pork price continued to rise, with the average daily price increasing by 7.54% year-on-year, while vegetable prices saw a significant decline, with an average daily price decrease of 3.07% [30] Group 3 - The report highlights that the U.S. economy's first-quarter GDP growth was revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to the previous quarter's growth of 3.4% [59] - The report notes that the core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, remaining in line with expectations, but the core PCE's month-on-month growth of 0.2% was the smallest increase of the year [33] - The report indicates that the Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% in May, better than the market expectation of 2.5%, with core CPI also showing an increase [62]